A new, more powerful generation of weight-loss drugs could be about the change the landscape for weight-loss treatments, according to analysts at Barclays.
Thus far, investors' focus on the GLP-1-based weight loss treatments has ebbed and flowed, but 2025 might be an inflection point in the narrative, suggests the bank.
“Overall usage of GLP-1 drugs remains relatively low in the US and demand is still outweighing supply.
“But everything might be about to change. A new, more powerful generation of weight-loss drugs could significantly boost growth and supply could soon increase.”
Numerous catalysts are on the way, adds the broker, notably GLP-1 supply capacity re-appraisal, especially after the FTC approval of the Catalent transaction.
A second catalyst is the results of Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO)’s REDEFINE-1 study.
This next-generation obesity drug, CagriSema, could set a weight-loss target of about 25% of body weight, compared with the first generation of drugs delivering 15% weight loss. For context, this is a significant efficacy leap over Wegovy and Zepbound and could significantly increase the size of the market.
Finally, the US environment is an overhang given Trump’s stated objectives but Barclays adds this affects the whole pharma sector.
Looking at the companies likely to be affected, Barclays sees Danone (OTCQX:DANOY) as the biggest potential winner from the changing GLP-1 landscape with others (Nestle) starting to produce new products and platforms to target GLP-1 users.