Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) latest guidance update for 2025 and mid-term mostly came online to consensus and our expectation, says US bank Citi.
Iron ore shipments are guided to be flat year-on-year at 323-338 million tonnes, slightly below its estimates, while copper production is set for accelerated growth with the Oyu Tolgoi ramping up.
Rio is guiding for 780- 850kt group copper production with production from Oyu Tolgoi expected to be up 50%.
Citi notes that Rio also reiterated its mid-term guidance for 1mt copper production with multiple projects in the portfolio.
Production in the aluminium division is guided for recovery across the board in 2025 with bauxite, alumina and primary aluminium higher year-on-year.
Capex guidance at US$11 billion in 2025 is higher than US$10.2 billion in our model and implies a 10% increase vs the previous guidance.
The company is expecting to deliver 3% copper equivalent volume CAGR over the next decade, notes the broker.