A decision on the water utilities price regime for the next five years from regulator Ofwat is due on 19 December and UBS expects the upshot to be dividend cuts.
In the case of South West Water owner Pennon Group PLC (LSE:PNN, OTC:PEGRY), UBS sees this as nailed on though it's less certain for United Utilities Group PLC (LSE:UU.) and Severn Trent PLC (LSE:SVT).
For the industry overall, the regulator has proposed a £95/ household a year (c22%) real increase in bills by 2029/30, but the industry is seeking £175 pa (c40%).
UBS expects the compromise to be around £125-135 a year.
Meanwhile, the next results round starts tomorrow with Pennon likely to be the weakest suggests the bank.
United Utilities is set for underlying EBIT of £326m (PY £271m) and EPS of 20.3p (PY 13.2p) with likely capex guidance of £0.85-1.1bn.
On 20 November, Severn Trent is set for underlying EBIT of £299 million (PY £255m) and EPS of 41.7p (PY 29.7p) says UBS, which is looking for £1.3-1.5bn capex and £100m ODIs [bonus payments].
For Pennon, UBS forecasts £83 million EBIT (PY £86m) and a loss per share of 1.8p EPS (PY 3.6p).
The bank adds these could be its weakest first-half results ever, driven by low consumption, high opex, and high hedged debt costs.
“The focus at Pennon will be on the financial leverage ratios,” it adds.
Pennon though remains a 'buy' on a 6.3% yield even with the nailed-on 25% dividend cut.
United Utilities is a 'buy' with a price target of 1,180p with a sustainable-looking 5.1% dividend yield
Severn Trent is a 'sell' (PT 2,390p) on a 17% premium to RAB and a 4.7% dividend yield.