- FTSE 100 climbs 51 points
- Bitcoin jumps to new record high at $82k
- NatWest completes £1bn buyback of government stake
- Aquis Exchange agrees to be taken over by Switzerland's SIX
4.10pm: FTSE rebound but lags Europe
As we come close to winding down for the day, the FTSE 100 is up around 60 points or just over 0.7%, as it pretty much has been since the early minutes of the day.
Croda International PLC (LSE:CRDA) and NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) were top risers, with banks also doing some heavy lifting.
Falls for miners kept the London index from the sort of gains seen for the FTSE 250, which rose 1%, and on continental Europe, where the Frankfurt and Paris benchmarks were up 1.3% and 1.2% respectively.
Across the pond, the Russell 2000 small cap index is leading the way, up 1.4%, along with various Trump-linked stocks.
Looking to tomorrow, it's set to be busy day, with AstraZeneca, Vodafone and Flutter all among those reporting results, plus the next round of Shell's court battle with Dutch environmentalists concludes when its appeal verdict will be announced.
The Anglo-Dutch giant was stunned when it lost the original case, which has been cited though not confirmed as a reason for its domicile shift from its traditional home of the Netherlands to the UK.
A court in The Hague ruled that Shell must reduce its CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030, but Shell disagreed, arguing that its carbon reduction programme was on course to reduce its direct 'phase 1' and 'phase 2' emissions by 2030 while adding that emissions from customers (phase 3) were outside its control (even though its main oil and gas products are undeniably massive sources of greenhouse gas emissions)....read more
3.59pm: 'Euro-dollar parity by end of 2025'
The euro has fallen 0.6% against the US dollar today and 2.6% in the past month and by the end of next year one euro could be exchanged for one dollar, says James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics
"The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon," says Reilly in a note.
"Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than investors expect, we forecast the euro to slide to parity against the greenback by the end of 2025."
The euro is at its lowest level since April and only the Chinese yuan/renminbi has seen a larger fall.
"A large part of the weakness in the euro (and in the renminbi) seems to reflect concerns over Trump’s proposed tariffs," he says.
"These concerns escalated after reports emerged late on Friday that Robert Lighthizer was set to reprise his role as US trade representative, though this has not yet been confirmed. Lighthizer has previously advocated aggressive tariff policies."
3.42pm: Dollar up, gold down
It's not just crypto-currencies that are in focus for investors and traders today, the forex markets have also been smoking.
The dollar in particular, which after getting stoked by the Trump election win last week, has continued to attract bids.
Here's market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at City Index: "Last week was a big one for the financial markets, and this one has started the way last one ended.
"Despite predictions of a close race, Donald Trump secured a sweeping victory, with Democrats taking most of the swing states and achieving a decisive win.
"This helped to fuel a rally in stocks, cryptos and the dollar, with the latter fuelled further by resilient economic indicators.
"As a result, the GBP/USD outlook has remained bearish."
Also last week we had a jump in US consumer sentiment data, alongside the market’s positive reaction to political developments, despite a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
But what has kept the dollar strong, says Razaqzada, is that "markets know that fiscal expansion might limit further rate cuts", with investors anticipating tax cuts and infrastructure spending from the government.
The dollar is up 0.7% versus the euro and 0.4% on the pound.
As the dollar rises, the price of gold is falling.
While equities and the dollar rallied in the past week, gold lost ground, experiencing renewed pressure amid expectations for future fiscal stimulus.
"Gold’s decline against the backdrop of Trump’s victory marks a shift in sentiment, with some investors now choosing to diversify away from safe-haven assets," says Razaqzada.
"However, this is only likely to be a temporary obstacle, and the long-term gold forecast remains bullish in light of ongoing rate cuts by central banks."
3.03pm: Death of clubs?
Nightclubs across the UK face “severe jeopardy” as a result of tax hikes announced in last month’s Autumn Budget, the Night Time Industries Association (NTIA) has warned.
Some 40% have warned of closure within the next six months, while 90% were found to be faced with “devastating financial impacts,” a survey by the trade body found.
“The Autumn Budget has effectively signed a death sentence for many night-time economy businesses across the UK,” NTIA head Michael Kill commented.
2.45pm: US stocks mixed
US stocks have mostly opened higher.
The Dow Jones has climbed 0.9% and the S&P 500 has inched up 0.2%, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has fallen slightly, down less than 0.1% though.
US small-cap shares are continuing to thrive since the election, with the Russell 2000 up another 1.85%.
Holding the Nasdaq back is a 10.5% fall for Super Micro Computer, with other microchip sector names also in the red, including ARM Holdings, NXP Semiconductor, Micron and AMD.
Nasdaq Risers are led by Tesla, up another 8.1%, while Salesforce and Goldman Sachs are topping the Dow, up 3.8% and 2.75%.
2.06pm: Bitcoin investors, remember remember CGT
As bitcoin surges past $82,000 for the first time today, up 123% from a year ago, investors in the crypto markets are being warned that if they decide to cash in or take some profits, "they need to watch out for a potential tax liability, or they could fall foul of HM Revenue and Customs".
That's the advice of James Carn, associate director in private client tax at Evelyn Partners as the sharo spikes in crypto markets coincide with a tighter capital gains tax environment for investors in the UK.
"HMRC has been closing in on crypto profits, where it estimates there are high rates of non-compliance, in terms of gains not being declared," says Carn.
This year the tax authority has already been sending 'nudge letters' to those it suspects of failing to pay the correct tax on their crypto gains..read more
1.20pm: Bitcoin thoughts
Some analysis of bitcoin and dogecoin from Proactive's crypto guru.
Our man notes that trading volumes, i.e. the nominal amount of bitcoin being bought and sold on the crypto exchanges, has "shot through the roof".
Yet confirmed transactions, i.e. the degree to which bitcoin is being used for its original intended purpose of transferring money, remain largely static, as does the number of unique addresses.
"One way to read these on-chain analytics is that more people aren’t necessarily buying bitcoin, but more ‘whales’ are," he says.
Bitcoin whales are nigh-net-worth or ultra-high-net-worth individuals of the investing world, who accrue substantial sums of the cryptocurrency and ‘HODL’ (crypto parlance that either came from a mistype of 'hold' or an acronym for 'Hold On for Dear Life').
This begs the question- what are these crypto enthusiasts speculating will happen? Read the rest here.
12.16pm: FTSE up, but tobacco weighs, US stocks set to rise
Just after midday, the FTSE 100 is up just over 60 points or 0.8% at 8,134, while the FTSE 250 index has surged 250 points higher, or 1.2% to 20,768.
A fall in oil prices is weighing on the blue-chip index, with Brent crude futures down 1.4% to below $73 a barrel, taking the wind out of Shell and BP.
Biggest fallers on the Footsie are tobacco giants Imperial Brands and BAT, Sainsbury's and miners Rio Tinto and Glencore.
Top of the risers is chemicals group Croda International PLC (LSE:CRDA), which reported flat sales sequentially but up 5% on last year, and confirmed its full-year outlook.
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) is up 3.2%, continuing to trade near all-time highs despite negative headlines from Virgin Atlantic blaming the engine maker for its flight cancellations.
NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) is now up 2.9% after it bought back £1 billion of its own shares from the government.
Other banks and financial sector names are also near the top of the leaderboard, including Barclays, Intermediate Capital, Lloyds and StanChart.
Kainos Group PLC (LSE:KNOS), the IT products and services provider, is topping the FTSE 250 after reporting this morning, with things seemingly not any worse than when it issued a profit warning two weeks ago.
US stock futures are indicating another up-day on Wall Street, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up 0.3% and Dow Jones futures up 0.4% as markets continue to re-price for a looming Trump 2.0 presidency.
US banks are all up over 1% pre-market, while other more-Trump adjacent names are up even higher, with Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) rising 7% pre-market to what will be a two and a half year high and Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (NASDAQ:DJT) set to add another 9% too.
Crypto markets are where the bigger movers are, with exchange operator Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) up 16%, bitcoin investor MicroStrategy Inc poised to jump another 11%, and Robinhood Markets Inc (NASDAQ:HOOD) 7%.$32.76
Bitcoin is up 3.6% over the past 24 hours and almost 20% higher over the past week to $82,337, with dogecoin up 18% to $0.2899 (where a big fan is a certain Trump-supporting E Musk), up 84% over the past week.
There are various indicators showing that the U.S. could be headed for a currency crisis. One of them has paws. #Dogecoin Rap, with @GoRemy. pic.twitter.com/GhbuQVPGkO
— reason (@reason) April 29, 2021
11.57am: Burberry climbs on vague deal news
Burberry Group PLC (LSE:BRBY) shares have sashayed 4% higher on further reports that Italy's Moncler is circling.
Last week, there was speculation that the Italian skiwear giant was eyeing a potential takeover of the UK fashion group.
Yesterday, the Mail on Sunday revealed that staff in its London stores have already been told about the deal, though details remained extremely vague.
A source was reported to have told the newspaper that merchandise talks have been paused until more a potential bid is confirmed.
Interim results from Burberry are due this Thursday.
11.39am: Trump trade has more to go, but maybe not the way we think
The Trump trade has been running since September, notes Jason Draho, head of asset allocation at UBS Americas, and has "more room to run".
He says the US election was "viewed as a risk-clearing event, regardless of the outcome, but most investors likely didn’t expect the risk to be definitively cleared only a few hours after the polls closed".
Yet he notes the VIX volatility index for the S&P 500 and its MOVE equivalent for US Treasuries were both down 20% by early Wednesday morning, while the actual S&P 500 index was up 2.5%, Treasury yields 8-17bps, and the USD 1.5% the day after.
"While one big question—who will win the election—was answered, questions about potential policy haven't been answered yet, and the timing of when they will be is not specified," says Draho.
"Last week couldn’t have gone much better for those conjecturing that there’s likely to be a market rally during the home stretch of the calendar year.
"Whether it can continue through the holidays will depend on a number of factors, beginning with the economic data. Good but not great data is probably sufficient because investors could justifiably look through any weakness, should it arrive, on the grounds that monetary and now fiscal policy will be supportive for growth."
Investor positioning is another likely tailwind, he says, with many investors de-risking ahead of the election, hence the fall in gold prices afterthe election.
"Markets are already well into pricing a “Trump trade” that began in September, but the year-end rally has more room to run," he adds.
Specifically, his message is that "there’s more to go in stocks", with UBS's December 2025 price target for the S&P 500 being 6600 versus 5,995 at last close.
"But the election outcome has likely pulled forward the timing of some of those returns.
"Last week was a time to react fast, but as the holidays approach and the economic policy priorities of the incoming Trump administration start taking shape, reflecting a bit more slowly on how those policies will impact the markets in 2025 is imperative.
"After all, just like election night, it may not play out as investors first expect."
11.12am: Bitcoin, Tesla and other Trump trades keep rising
As the two-minute silences are held, there is still noise in the market around the 'Trump trade'.
Bitcoin keeps hitting new all-time highs, topping $82k in the past hour. That has lifted Coinbase 17%, MicroStrategy 12% and Robinhood Markets 9%.
The US dollar is also on the front foot, with the pound down 0.25% to $1.2880 and the euro down 0.5% to $1.0662.
Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (NASDAQ:DJT) are up 7%, as are those in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $343.19, their highest since April 2022.
US banks are also almost all 1% higher or more, with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs leading the way.
10.33am: Pearson and ITV to benefit from tax rebate
ITV PLC (LSE:ITV) has added 1.5%, Pearson PLC (LSE:PSON) is up 1% and London Stock Exchange Group PLC 0.5% this morning after news emerged over the weekend that they are among the biggest beneficiaries of an unexpected tax windfall, which is an extra pain for the new Labour government.
A total £700 million will be refunded by HMRC, the FT reported, after the UK won an appeal over a Brussels state aid ruling, which had forced the UK tax authority into corporate collections that the previous government did not agree with.
This legal reversal was over the European Commission's antitrust push for a "level playing field" on taxing multi-national companies.
Pearson could potentially recoup £105 million, with LSEG having paid £11 million to HMRC and had a potential exposure of up to £65 million, according to its most recent annual report, while ITV is expected to receive a refund of about £10 million.
9.55am: Resolute plunge
Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX:RSG, LSE:RSG) shares tumbled 33% on news the gold miner’s chief executive had been detained in Mali.
Terence Holohan was “unexpectedly” detained alongside two other Resolute employees by government officials after a meeting last Friday, a statement said.
They had been in the country’s capital, Bamako, to discuss “open claims” against Resolute, which the company said it “maintains are unsubstantiated”.
9.38am: Bitcoin bounce
Bitcoin is up almost 3% over the past 24 hours at $81,636, having continued its post-US-election rise over the weekend, up from $76k on Friday and $68k on Monday.
The latest rises might be linked to the Republican party creeping closer to control of the House of Representatives, currently on 214 seats, with 218 required for a majority and 18 left to be called.
"The fear and greed index for the crypto market is showing that there is more greed creeping into the market as traders are becoming more and more bold as they believe that it is no longer about bitcoin achieving its target of 100K per bitcoin but now the discussion is more about 150K," says market analyst Naeem Aslam at Zaye Capital Markets.
Katheleen Brooks at XTB noted that Trump is "a big fan of crypto" and the Bitcoin surged to fresh record highs comes as "the crypto world waits to see if Trump will establish a broader use for crypto in the US, and his plans for a Strategic Crypto Reserve".
"We think that the price of bitcoin could be biased to the upside in the medium term. Stock futures in the US are higher as we start a new week and the S&P 500 is expected to extend gains above 6,000. However, as details of Trump’s policy priorities are starting to trickle through, there could be more focus on inflationary fears."
9am: What to watch later today
One thing to note today, as it’s Remembrance Day in Europe, the US bond market will be closed today for the Veterans' Day holiday but Wall Street's stock market will be open.
The US has been in focus for financial markets after the Trump victory and this week there are a lot of Fed speakers, who should be pressed for their view of policy post the election.
This "will be interesting after Powell navigated this uncertainty well last week", says Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank, with the Federal Reserve chief himself speaking again on Thursday.
Around the world, Reid says the key events will be UK employment and the German ZEW tomorrow, Japanese and Eurozone GDP alongside the ECB account of the October meeting on Thursday, and China's main monthly data dump on Friday.
He noted that Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning after Beijing’s latest stimulus measures "largely underwhelmed", and the release of weak inflation data over the weekend.
The Chinese inflation rate rose 0.3% year-over-year in October, missing expectations of a 0.4% increase and lower than the 0.4% gain seen in September. Inflation fell for the second straight month, dropping to its lowest in four months.
Miners Rio Tinto PLC and Glencore PLC are among the few stocks in the red in London this morning, as metals prices often soften on weaker China data or sentiment.
Brent crude is down 0.6%, following a 2.3% fall on Friday that Reid attributed to the underwhelming fiscal announcement out of China.
8.53am: European stocks on the charge
The FTSE 100 is continuing its surge higher, now up 73 points or 0.9% to 8,142.
It's part of a wider positive mood among European investors, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 both rising 1.2%, while Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 have added either side of 0.9%.
The wider Euro STOXX 600 is up 1.1%, with Polish retailer Dino Polska top of the list, up 14% on the back of earnings.
Germany drug company Evotec and Danish audio specialist GN Store Nord are next.
8.36am: NatWest up, Direct Line little moved
NatWest's shares are up 1.2% after it agreed to buy back £1 billion of shares from the government.
Analyst Gary Greenwood at Shore Capital notes that this means HM Treasury's shareholding in the bank has reduced from 14.2% to approximately 11.4%, which also takes into account additional share sales by HMT into the market under the ongoing trading plan, which are not reflected in the 12.03% resultant shareholding reported by the company.
"This directed share buyback has come a little sooner than we expected and so brings forward the likely point at which the Government will have fully exited its shareholding (we assume it will be all out by the middle of next year or possibly sooner)."
Direct Line is little moved, up 0.25%, after reporting third-quarter numbers earlier, which included plans to axe around 550 jobs as part of cost cutting efforts.
Analyst Andreas Van Embden at Peel Hunt says Motor average premiums per policy seem to have slipped 3% since the second quarter and the beginning of the year to a little below the run rate he had forecast for this year.
Motor policy numbers are down 10% since the end of 2023 and down 2% since the second quarter.
He notes that DLG states it has remained disciplined during the quarter but flags that it has seen a higher number of bodily injury claims during 3Q24, whilst 1H24 and 4Q24 have been more in line with expectations, while new CFO Jane Poole "has recently joined and is reviewing DLG’s financial strategy".
8.12am: FTSE 100 gets off to flyer
The FTSE 100 has soared 52 points higher to 8,124.85.
Croda International PLC (LSE:CRDA) is top of the leaderboard, up 4.2%, after reporting 5% sales growth for the third quarter and keeping its full-year profit outlook unchanged.
Housebuilder Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) is next, up 3.3%, bouncing back after Friday's profit warning, when it said understated build costs in its South division would be greater than first thought.
Precious metals miners Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) and Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, TSX:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF) are up 1.9% and banks are notable among the risers, with HSBC Holdings PLC (LSE:HSBA) and Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) both up 1.4%.
On the mid-caps Kainos Group PLC (LSE:KNOS) is top riser, up 5.7% as it announced a £30 million share buyback and posted interim results.
7.56am: Aquis Exchange agrees takeover by SIX
Aquis Exchange PLC (AIM:AQX) has agreed to be bought by Switzerland's SIX Exchange for 727p per share in cash, valuing the whole business at £225 million on a fully diluted basis.
The two boards said a recommended cash offer has been arranged at a price that is more than double the 330p closing price last Friday and 68% above the six-month average price of 433p, and above the 500p one-year high seen in July.
SIX said Aquis will continue to operate under its existing brand and business model.
7.39am: Direct Line numbers still mixed
Direct Line Insurance Group PLC (LSE:DLG) has reported continued challenging trading conditions in motor insurance, but has kept its full-year guidance in place for net insurance margin.
The FTSE 250-listed insurer grew gross written premium and associated fees 11.8% for the nine months to the end of September, with 11.4% growth for the motor division and 12.9% in non-motor.
Motor own brands delivered premium growth of 2.9% due to higher average premiums.
In-force policies declined across the third quarter, as Direct Line was hit by a reduction in the rate of decline and delivered 3% growth in the price comparison website channel that new CEO Adam Winslow introduced the group for the first time after he started in March.
7.27am: NatWest reduces govt stake with new buyback
NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) has bought back £1 billion of its shares from the UK government as the bailout stake bought at the height of the 2008 financial crisis continues to be wound down.
The lender said it agreed to scoop up 262.6 million shares from HM Treasury in an off-market purchase at a price of 380.8p apiece, representing 3.16% of the total share capital.
Following the purchase, the UK taxpayer owns 12.03% of the high street bank.
"This transaction represents another important milestone on the path to full privatisation," said NatWest CEO Paul Thwaite in a statement.
7.15am: FTSE 100 to break losing streak
The FTSE 100 is poised to end a four-day losing streak on Monday, which has been in stark contrast to the gains on Wall Street since the US election.
Futures markets are pointing to a gain of around 35 points for the London benchmark, after it lost 68 at the end of last week and 104.8 or 1.3% over the past five days to end at 8,072.39.
Asian markets have been mixed overnight and into this morning, with the Hang Seng down 1.5% and the wider Asia Dow falling 1%, but the Shanghai Composite and India’s Sensex both around 0.4% higher.
In commodity markets, oil and gold are little moved, with Brent at just under $74 a barrel, and gold at $2,672 an ounce.
Bitcoin, which has been given a new lease of life from Donald Trump’s election victory, has climbed further, topping $81,500 overnight.
In company news this morning, we hear from Direct Line Insurance, Team Internet Group and Kainos Group, among others.