Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.) has seen a quiet few months after the wholesale restructuring/disposal of its overseas businesses in the past three years.
Shares in the life, pensions and insurance group have mirrored that calm with the price back where it was in March after briefly rising above 500p in September.
Specialist financial broker KBW recently trimmed its full-year forecasts ahead of next Thursday’s third-quarter update (14 November) due to potentially higher-than-expected weather losses in Canada and lower yields.
KBW lowered its 2024 operating profits target by 8% to £1.6 billion and its solvency ratio by four percentage points.
"Canada seems to us likely to have generated insurance losses of C$0.5bn/£0.3bn for Aviva, based on the upper bound industry loss estimate and approximation for Aviva's market share."
Any comments about future buybacks and dividends will likely make the headlines.
UBS added it also expects the focus to be on the losses in Canada (UBSe: £180 million above budget pre-tax) and the outlook for the General Insurance business, particularly the combined ratio and when the 94% long-term ambition will be reached.
Weather in the UK has also been inclement recently which might not provide an offset to the higher losses expected in Canada.
"We forecast a full yar 2024 combined ratio of above 98%"
--adds UBS comment--