Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD) reported a solid performance in its third quarter, with free cash flow growing by 30% sequentially to $444 million, beating analysts' estimates.
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter came in at $0.30, surpassing Barrick's internal forecast of $0.29 but narrowly missing consensus estimates of $0.31.
The company’s quarterly revenue reached $3.37 billion, slightly below Jefferies' estimate of $3.39 billion, while gross profit exceeded forecasts at $1.32 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA of $1.77 billion was in line with expectations, with production costs totaling $1.57 billion.
Analysts at Jefferies expect Barrick's gold production to come in near the lower end of its guidance range of 3.9 to 4.3 million ounces, noting that year-to-date production is tracking about 73% of the lower threshold. However, Barrick anticipates a substantial production boost in the fourth quarter, driven by operational improvements at key assets, including PV, Gold Quarry, Kibali, and Lumwana.
The company’s copper segment, meanwhile, is on track to meet production and cost guidance, with feasibility studies (FS) for its primary copper projects expected by year-end. These FS updates are part of Barrick's longer-term plan to drive 30% production growth in gold-equivalent ounces (GEO) by 2030.
Barrick also highlighted strategic developments at its projects. Phase 1 of the PV expansion achieved commercial production, while at Goldrush, the total project spend reached $423 million. Additionally, Barrick accelerated drilling at Fourmile and plans to revise its resource model and feasibility study timeline.
In Pakistan’s Reko Diq project, Barrick continued work toward a feasibility study, with $154 million invested in ongoing assessments.
Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating for Barrick, with a price target of $28, implying a 52% upside from the current stock price of $18.43.