Arm Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:ARM), Infineon Technologies (ETR:IFX, OTC:INFNNY) and STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) are at risk from Donald Trump’s presidential election, according to Citi analysts, who said ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) could also be impacted.
"The prospect of higher tariffs and a roll-back of elements of the Inflation Reduction and CHIPS Acts by a possible future-Trump administration are potential headwinds for the European semiconductor and related equipment industries,” the analysts said.
"Increased tariffs on imports from China such as electronics or European automobiles "could pose risks to semiconductor demand globally," they said.
It it widely expected that a Trump administration could roll back some or all clean energy elements of Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is seen as a demand headwind for the semiconductors used in the power industry.
There are also questions about the CHIPS Act, even though it was backed by both the Democrat and Republican parties, which Citi said "could lead to delays in investment, further hindering the semiconductor equipment cycle in 2025", potentially hitting chip equipment makers ASML and ASM International.
Citi said Arm, Infineon and STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) were the stocks most at risk of US tariffs, while watering down of the IRA holds risks for Aixtron, Infineon and STMicro, among others.