4:09pm: Stocks rise
US stocks bounced back on Friday, boosted by Amazon's strong earnings report, but still posted losses for the week.
The tech-laden Nasdaq added 0.8% at 18,239 points, the Dow Jones was up 0.7% at 42,052 points and the S&P 500 was up 0.4% at 5,728 points.
2:30pm: Deutsche Bank: Fed cut on track
Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, part of what the bank describes as a recalibration of monetary policy to better align with a low-inflation environment and a balanced economic outlook.
The anticipated cut is expected to have broad support among policymakers, though future rate moves could prompt more debate within the Fed.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is not likely to provide specific guidance on further rate cuts, instead signaling a flexible, data-driven approach to decision-making on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Deutsche Bank expects another quarter-point reduction in December, setting the stage for rates to gradually return to a neutral level of around 3.5% by next year.
While the Fed is not factoring election outcomes into its current policy, Deutsche Bank notes that policy shifts resulting from the election could ultimately reshape the economic landscape and influence the Fed’s direction.
1:15pm: Hurricanes impacted jobs report more than expected
Bank of America noted that the impact of hurricanes on October's jobs report was more significant than initially anticipated.
Analysts had estimated a drag of at least 50,000 jobs due to hurricanes and strikes, but following the data release, BofA believes this was an underestimation.
Strikes alone accounted for a loss of 41,000 jobs, and hiring in sectors typically impacted by hurricanes—such as construction, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality—slowed compared to the previous three-month average.
Consequently, they now estimate the drag from hurricanes to be closer to 60,000 jobs, resulting in a total drag from both hurricanes and strikes of approximately 100,000 jobs.
12:30pm: Investor optimism returns
Stocks continued to rally on Friday, recovering from recent declines as investors reacted to disappointing jobs data and positive earnings reports from Amazon and Intel.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2%, the S&P 500 gained about 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased roughly 1.1%.
The jobs report revealed that the U.S. economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, far below expectations, with the weak figures attributed to recent hurricanes and labor strikes, particularly at Boeing.
Despite the disappointing data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy decision on November 7 remained stable, with traders assigning a 98% probability to a quarter-point rate cut.
11:10am: Jobs a 'non-event'
October's payrolls report was a "non-event" despite the 12,000 reading being much lower than expected, XTB's Kathleen Brooks said.
"It is likely that the Fed will look through these employment numbers, and instead November numbers will be worth watching to see the trend in the US labor market and any revisions to the October data," Brooks commented.
Brooks highlighted a "small recalibration" in the Fed Fund Futures market, noting the implied interest rate for December 2024 is down 2bps on Friday to 4.37%, while the rate for June 2025 has fallen back 5 bps to 3.77%.
10.06am: Wall Street climbs despite hefty jobs miss
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ticked higher as trading got underway, despite figures showing the US economy added just 12,000 jobs last month.
Markets had been expecting the addition of 100,000 jobs, with hurricanes Milton and Helen, strikes at the likes of Boeing and pre-election uncertainty said to have all weighed.
Unemployment remained at 4.1% month on month, the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed.
ING Economics analysts highlighted the lower figure reflected the range of factors from storms to the 33,000-strong worker Boeing strike, but noted the Federal Reserve had been left with more room to cut rates.
“The trend in hiring is obviously slowing and with the inflation backdrop looking less threatening,” ING said.
“The Federal Reserve clearly has scope to move policy closer to neutral.”
The Dow Jones gained 0.7% as a result early on Friday, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 climbed by 0.9% and 0.7%.
8.27am: Stocks seen higher
Wall Street appeared on course for a positive start on Friday as traders awaited the latest labour department non-farm payroll and unemployment figures.
Futures had the Nasdaq climbing 0.5% ahead of the opening bell, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were seen 0.4% and 0.3% higher respectively.
Friday is set to see the final release of jobs data, and insight into the health of the US economy, before next week’s presidential election.
Markets are expecting around 100,000 jobs to have been added across the economy in October, against 254,000 a month earlier, while unemployment is estimated to remain at 4.1%.
“Hurricanes and the Boeing strike are likely to sway these numbers, so traders may look through them,” XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks noted.
“They also might not meaningfully impact next week’s Federal Reserve decision.”
Oil giants Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX, ETR:CHV) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM, ETR:XONA) closed off a busy week of reporting on Friday meanwhile, with shares in each climbing over 1.8% after both beat estimates.
Profit for Exxon Mobil sat at US$8.6 billion over the third quarter, with the figure sitting at US$4.5 billion for Chevron.