A pattern in the northern hemisphere's climate, known as the Arctic Oscillator, should benefit retailers such as Marks and Spencer (LSE:MKS), AB Foods' (LSE:ABF) Primark, JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD.) and Zalando, according to RBC Capital Markets.
Full-price sales have seen a stronger start this year compared to the same period in 2023, RBC analysts noted, and could benefit more in the winter.
Using data from Rutgers Snow Lab on the level of snow coverage at the end of September, the Arctic Oscillation indicator suggests the average winter temperatures likely to occur in Northern Europe and the eastern USA.
"This effectively states how far south the cold arctic weather can travel. It has been pretty accurate over the past decade," the analysts said.
According to the current level of snow coverage, the winter of 2024/25 should be "fairly normal overall, perhaps a little colder than average".
This is supportive for clothing and apparel sales for these retailers, though on the stronger recent performance, the analysts noted that this is "often followed by something of a hangover, which we may see later on this season".
The report expects M&S, which performs well in seasonal categories like knitwear, to benefit.
Primark is also forecast to see like-for-like sales growth, with JD Sports set to recover after last year's difficulties caused by warmer weather, when there was a mild December in particular.
RBC also pointed to supply chain challenges, with disruptions in regions such as Bangladesh that may lead to some stock running out in some categories.
Retailers like German online specialist Zalando, however, have strong inventory positions, with 70% of stock secured through planned partnerships. RBC includes Zalando in its 'Global 30 best ideas' list.