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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Banks

NatWest's margins and impairments will be key as Bank of England cuts loom

Ahead of the NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) third-quarter results on Friday 25 October, shares in the lender are the best-performing among its FTSE 100 peer group this year.

At its last set of numbers, the high street lender raised its full-year income forecast after beating expectations on all its key targets in the first half of the year.

The lender said it expects full-year income to come to "around £14 billion", following total income falling less than expected in the first six months of the year to £7.1 billion, with an operating profit of £3 billion.

Net interest margin (NIM) of 2.10% in the second quarter was five basis points higher than the first, primarily due to improved savings margins.

For the full year NatWest also expects to achieve a return on tangible equity above 14% and group operating costs, excluding litigation and conduct costs, "broadly stable" compared to last year.

Analysts expect NIM to remain at 2.10% and for total income to come in at £3.6 billion, down from £3.7 billion in the second quarter.

"NatWest has plenty of wind in its sails after second-quarter results in July were a knockout," says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Third-quarter pre-impairment profit is expected to be broadly flat quarter-over-quarter at £1.63 billion.

"Impairments themselves will be key," said Britzman, adding that margins and loan growth will also be in focus.

"With the Bank of England delivering its first rate cut in July, investors will be keen to see how much of that has been passed on and whether it’s triggered any shifting behaviours from savers.

"On the loan side, an improving housing market should set the scene for mortgage growth, and markets are also interested to hear whether corporate clients are picking up activity, given NatWest's outsized exposure relative to peers."

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