Aviva has had forecasts for this year trimmed by specialist financial broker KBW ahead of its third quarter update on 14 November.
Due to higher-than-expected weather losses in Canada and lower yields, KBW has cut its 2024 operating profits target by 8% to £1.6 billion and its solvency ratio by four percentage points.
"Canada seems to us likely to have generated insurance losses of C$0.5bn / £0.3bn for Aviva, based on the upper bound industry loss estimate and approximation for Aviva's market share."
Pension Risk Transfer has confirmed one other large (£0.2bn) transaction since the £4.1bn update was given mid-August while protection sales are likely to be up strongly again with the first-time consolidation of the AIG book.
Solvency is likely to be into the mid-190s from 205% on 30 June.
Market 'perform' with a 495p target remains the broker’s recommendation.
Shares were down 1% at 472.5p.