Analysts from Citi are bullish about the GLP-1 market, particularly within obesity and diabetes treatments, signaling a positive outlook for key players despite facing some supply constraints.
According to Citi, there was an impressive 244% increase in total prescriptions for obesity drugs, such as Wegovy, and an 18% rise for diabetes medications, including Ozempic and Rybelsus.
For 2024, Citi forecasts significant sales figures for Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) and Eli Lilly, estimating diabetes sales at $23 billion and $18 billion, respectively, while obesity sales are projected at $9 billion and $6 billion.
Peak sales could potentially reach $52 billion in diabetes and $30 billion in obesity for Novo, with Eli Lilly also expected to see substantial growth.
Following a recent meeting with Novo and Zealand Pharma executives, analysts noted that while Q3 consensus for Novo might be slightly optimistic, full-year 2024 guidance is likely to be raised, fueled by strong GLP-1 and insulin performance.
“Novo's promotional efforts have stepped up, with the benefits of the recently launched DTC campaign in evidence,” Citi analysts wrote.
Citi remains optimistic about upcoming positive cardiovascular outcomes and pivotal trial results for Novo's obesity drug, CagriSema.
Feedback from the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) has also been encouraging, further reinforcing the positive sentiment surrounding the GLP-1 market.