Next week’s macroeconomic calendar is set to be dominated by job market data from the US, while another gross domestic product reading is due in the UK.
Friday brings both non-farm payroll data and unemployment figures from the US, with the readings coming as markets mull over the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut.
Non-farm payrolls, having sent global markets into turmoil in early August after undershooting expectations, are anticipated to have fallen further to 130,000 from 142,000 throughout September.
Given these signals how many jobs are added to the US economy each month, August’s below-forecast reading had raised concerns of impending recession for the US economy.
A string of data since has allayed fears of a recession, leaving the figures more likely to provide clarity over expectations for another Fed rate cut in November, after this month’s 0.5% reduction.
As for unemployment, markets are expecting the figure to climb from August’s 4.2% to 4.3% in September.
“If the US economy adds 100,000 jobs or fewer and the unemployment rate exceeds 4.3%, it could reignite concerns that the Fed is falling behind and strengthen expectations for a second consecutive 50 bp rate cut in November,” IG analysts noted.
Back in the UK, a final estimate for economic growth over the second quarter is due on Monday, with markets forecasting an unchanged reading of 0.9%.
UK house price and shop price inflation data is also due throughout the week, while Tuesday will bring inflation figures from the Eurozone.