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The Markets
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Differing interest rate calls expected either side of the Atlantic: Macro week ahead

Macroeconomic headlines this week are set to be dominated by interest rate decisions by both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

Having initially cut its base rate from 5.25% to 5.00% in August, expectations are that the Bank of England will hold when the latest call is announced on Thursday.

Over in the US, Federal Reserve policymakers are in line to begin their interest rate cutting cycle when updating on Wednesday, with markets still split over whether the first cut will be by 25 or 50 basis points.

In the US, focus has shifted from cooling inflation to propping up the labour market, with a collective 115 basis points worth of cuts expected by the year-end.

Looking at the UK central bank, Barclays analysts said the lack of a “smoking gun” in recent economic data meant the Bank of England should stick to a cautious path of gradual reductions, meaning they did not expect a cut this week.

After last month's headline UK consumer price inflation held steady at 2.2%, new figures showed on Wednesday, but both core CPI and services inflation rising was likely to result in "nothing much changing", said Lalitha Try, economist at the Resolution Foundation.

"Amid a busy period for central banks, with the Fed gearing up for its first interest rate cut in years following a cut by the ECB last week, it’s likely to be a steady-eddie week for the Bank of England."

Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja said the fresh CPI report "reduces the odds of an imminent rate cut on 19 September [but] we continue to think that the MPC will be encouraged by improving signs of underlying inflation, setting the stage for a November rate cut".

** Update: Adds inflation data **

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