It's back to school time as we enter the new month of September this coming week, which will finish off with monthly US jobs numbers that could see investors and economists sharpen their pencils for the expected interest rate cut later in the month.
For UK and European investors, there are purchasing managers index surveys, retail sales and house prices data to chew over too, but these will pale in comparison to the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
The official jobs report is seen as crucial in assessing the size of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later in the month and so could spark big moves in bond and stock markets as well as for the dollar.
A month ago, the new July payrolls came in well short of expectations at 114,000, with a surge in the US unemployment rate to 4.3%, which sparked a dramatic flight from risk assets, with global stock markets plummeting.
If payrolls weakened much further in August, economists warn it could reignite recession fears, and with the Bureau for Labor Statistics having acknowledged its non-farm payrolls estimates in the last tax year were 818,000 too high and Fed chief Jerome Powell having said "the time has come" to begin loosening monetary policy, the jobs number on Friday could see an outsized reaction.
“It’s hard to deny how important the August NFP print (on 6 Sept) will likely be and could be the defining data point that settles the September FOMC rates debate, and whether the Fed cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Fireworks could be seen on both sides of the Atlantic when the NFP is released at 1.30pm UK time.
More US jobs data is available on Wednesday and Thursday in the form of the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the initial weekly unemployment claims figure, respectively.
Markets are currently pricing around 120 basis points of cuts in 2024, up from 50bps just a month earlier.
Monday 02 September
Economic announcements: Nationwide House Price Index (UK), PMI Manufacturing (UK)
Tuesday 03 September
Economic announcements: Retail Sales (UK), PMI Manufacturing (US), ISM Manufacturing (US), ISM Prices Paid (US), Auto Sales (US)
Wednesday 04 September
Economic announcements: PMI Services (UK), PMI Composite (UK), MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
Thursday 05 September
Economic announcements: PMI Construction (UK), New Car Sales (UK), Continuing Claims (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), PMI Composite (US), PMI Services (US), Factory Orders (US), ISM Services (US), Crude Oil Inventories (US)
Friday 06 September
Economic announcements: Halifax House Price Index (UK), Non-Farm Payrolls (US), Unemployment Rate (US), GDP (EU)