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US GDP, inflation and UK mortgage approvals: Macro Week Ahead

Gross domestic product and personal consumption expenditures data is due from across the pond next week, after fears over the health of the US economy have taken centre stage recently.

Global stocks took a hit earlier this month as poor jobs figures raised questions over whether the US was heading for recession, but have since recovered on brighter data.

Next week’s second estimate for GDP growth over the last quarter, alongside the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation in PCE, will therefore help add to what has so far been an improving picture since.

Given the focus on the US economy, any revision from an initially estimated 2.8% growth in GDP over the second quarter could turn heads, with the latest figure due on Thursday.

Core PCE data due on Friday will then come after a 0.2% rise in June, which was higher than expectations for a 0.1% increase.

Forecasts are for another 0.2% monthly increase this time round, with any upward surprises set to raise eyebrows after inflation has appeared to come under control.

The two data sets come as anticipations grow for a string of Federal Reserve base rate cuts this year, alongside hopes that the bank has been able to stem inflation without sending the economy into recession.

Back in the UK, a quieter bank holiday week will see mortgage approvals data for July on Friday, while EU inflation figures are also due late on in the week.