On Friday last week Chinese officials announced export restrictions on certain critical minerals including antimony, limiting how much of these minerals can be sold overseas.
As China mined about 48% of the world’s antimony in 2023, the new export restrictions pose an immediate risk to antimony supply chains, potentially interrupting the manufacture of military-relevant material.
Nova Minerals Ltd (ASX:NVA, OTCQB:NVAAF) believes its Estelle Gold Project, strategically located in Alaska’s Tintina Gold Belt and demonstrating highly elevated levels of antimony in exploration, could be the answer to the looming antimony supply gap.
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What is antimony used for?
In a time of escalating international conflict, restrictions on antimony supply could affect the creation of ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons and night vision goggles, as well as energy-related technologies like batteries and photovoltaic equipment.
Beijing’s commerce ministry said the export restriction had been imposed “in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfil international obligations such as [nuclear] non-proliferation”.
Investment bank Hallgarten & Company principal and mining strategist Christopher Ecclestone told Reuters that the export directive was a sign of the current political climate.
“The military uses of Sb (antimony) are now the tail that wags the dog. Everyone needs it for armaments, so it is better to hang onto it than sell it,” he said.
“This will put a real squeeze on the US and European militaries.”
Antimony joins a growing list of critical minerals including graphite, lithium and rare earth elements that are facing supply restrictions as China locks down exports while also cornering the global mining market on production.
The European Union and US Government are moving swiftly to secure new supply options independent of China before the dearth has operational and political consequences.
"We are looking at things that we can do during construction to get antimony out the door sooner for some of these strategic needs," US-based Antimony mining company Perpetua's CEO told Reuters.
"The Department of Defense is aware of the critical nature of antimony and the short supply available.
“We've been hearing from a lot of different sources about the lack of supply for antimony, that the market is very tight and getting tighter daily."
The Estelle Gold Project
The Estelle Gold Project, 85%-owned by Nova Minerals Ltd (ASX:NVA, OTCQB:NVAAF), holds a gold mineral resource of 9.9 million ounces of gold, with 3.4 million ounces in the higher-confidence measured and indicated categories.
Read: Nova Minerals considers two production pathways for Estelle Gold Project ahead of PFS
A recent strategic review of the project also identified multi-element critical mineral potential, with an emphasis on elevated levels of antimony as well as bismuth, gallium, indium, lanthanum, manganese, scandium, strontium, tellurium, tungsten and yttrium.
The formation of antimony mineralisation is often associated with gold-bearing belts, most often in direct combination with gold sulphide ore.
At Estelle’s Stoney prospect, Nova recorded rock chip samples with antimony grades of up to 1.3% and soil samples up to 0.48%, the Train prospect produced 15 samples above 0.5% and the Trumpet prospect a further 13, with antimony levels rising to as high as 16.8% in one sample.
The Shoeshine and Stibium prospects also produced antimony results, with Stibium being a particular stand out, grading up to 60.5% antimony in relation to gold mineralisation of up to 12.7 g/t gold.
Stibium is the main focus of Nova’s antimony ambitions, with plans for a small-scale starter mine in the works with a 20-metre by 2-metre-wide antimony-rich surface outcropping at its centre.
US Government support
Nova Minerals corporate advisors and CEO Christopher Gerteisen recently visited Washington DC and Alaska’s state capital Juneau, attending conferences and meeting with various federal and state government departments and bodies to discuss the lack of a domestic antimony and critical mineral supply chain.
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The company says it is actively pursuing grant opportunities to progress development of its antimony and critical mineral resources at Estelle.
“These trips were very productive in highlighting the potential at Estelle and building strong relationships with relevant government agencies,” a company announcement read.
The Estelle Project has now become a partner in the Department of Energy (DoE) CORE Critical Mineral program alongside the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
The program is tasked with commercialising critical minerals in Alaska – the State of Alaska House Bill No.122 provides the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) authority to issue up to US$300 million in bonds to finance critical minerals-related projects in Alaska.
These bonds have a particular focus on projects proposed along the West Susitna Access Road, a roadway that will eventually reach the Estelle Project once complete.
Future Market Insights forecasts that the global antimony market is likely to be worth US$4.5 billion by 2032, growing at a 4% compounding annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2032.
With 85% of the world's antimony mined in China and Russia, and only 60,000 tonnes stockpiled in the US compared to 700,000 in its rivals’ pockets, projects with antimony potential like Estelle may soon gain importance on a level of national and international security.