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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Inflation readings for US and UK under microscope - macro week ahead

US and UK consumer price inflation updates on Wednesday will be prominent among potential market-moving macroeconomic events of the week ahead.

For the UK, the key releases that traders will be watching will be jobs data on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday, GDP on Thursday and retail sales on Friday.

After the Bank of England delivered the first interest cut of the cycle at its 1 August meeting, officials said the risk of inflation picking back up from the 2% seen in May and June was the main reason why they may need to wait a while before reducing rates again.

Last month's UK inflation report from the Office for National Statistics showed the consumer price index rose 0.1% over the month of June, which meant the annual rise in CPI remained at 2.0% for the second month running.

Core CPI, which excludes more volatile prices such as food and fuel, remained at 3.5%, as did services sector CPI, a key measure watched by the BoE’s monetary policy committee as an indicator of persistent inflation, at 5.7%.

For July, the BoE monetary policy committee expects CPI to pick back up to 2.4%.

US inflation

As for US inflation, the last reading saw a negative monthly movement of 0.1%, leading to the annual rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years.

For July, the headline 12-month CPI rate is expected to ease further to 2.9%, with a 0.2% month-on-month reading for both headline and core rates.

Market analysts said further softness in US inflation report could put more pressure on the dollar, which fell to almost a five-month low after recent weak US jobs data.

Monday 12 August

Economic announcements: Monthly Budget Statement (US)

Tuesday 13 August

Economic announcements: Claimant Count Rate (UK), Unemployment Rate (UK), Producer Price Index (US)

Wednesday 14 August

Economic announcements: Consumer Price Index (UK), Producer Price Index (UK), Retail Price Inde (UK), MBA Mortgage Applications (US), Consumer Price Index (US), Crude oil Inventories (US), GDP (EU)

Thursday 15 August

Economic announcements: Balance of trade (UK), GDP (Preliminary) (UK) Gross Domestic Product (UK), Index of Services (UK), Industrial Production (UK), Manufacturing Production (UK), Continuing Claims (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Philadelphia Fed Index (US), Retail Sales (US), Retail Sales Less Autos (US), Capacity Utilisation (US), Industrial Production (US), Business Inventories (US)

Friday 16 August

Economic announcements: Retail Sales (UK), Building Permits (US), Housing Starts (US), University of Michigan Confidence (Preliminary) (US)

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