Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, ETR:0QF) shares plummeted almost 20% after the vaccine maker slashed its full-year sales forecast for respiratory vaccines by up to $1 billion.
It now expects product sales for its respiratory franchise, which includes COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines, to be between $3 billion to $3.5 billion, compared to its earlier projection of $4 billion.
The company attributed its downwardly revised guidance to very low sales in the EU during 2024, potential deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an increasingly competitive environment for respiratory vaccines in the US.
For Q2, Moderna posted a year-over-year decline in revenue to $241 from $344 million, attributed to decreased COVID-19 vaccine sales as product sales decreased by 37% from the year-ago quarter.
It reported a net loss of $1.3 billion or $3.33 per share, better than the loss per share of $3.39 expected by analysts.
Analysts at Jefferies noted that Moderna’s lowered product sales guidance heightens existing investor concerns, given it is already running net losses, and raises doubts about it hitting profitability and cash burn goals.
They see RSV as a key “swing factor” for the company, given it remains unclear how the season will play out with total RSV jabs.
“We expect less than 10 million which was administered last year,” they wrote. “This is supported or should be expected given early adopters and high-risk people got it last year and now the total addressable market is narrower given recent ACIP recommendation is only for adults 75 plus years old limits the vaccine to only high-risk adults 60 to 74 years old.”
Analysts noted that there were no major changes to Moderna’s pipeline, with its RSV vaccine shipped in July ahead of the season expected to start by mid- to late-August through to March 2025.
“Stock will likely move on script volume and how much market share they can essentially take from GSK and Pfizer,” they wrote.
“Our base case is that GSK is likely to remain the market leader with 50% plus share, given superior efficacy, but Pfizer and Moderna could split the market given they have similar efficacy and both have one-step formulation.”
The Jefferies analysts reiterated their ‘Buy’ rating on Moderna and $180 price target.
Shares of Moderna were down 19.3% at about $96, bringing its market cap to about $37 billion in the early afternoon on Thursday.