BP PLC (LSE:BP.) flagged weaker oil trading than expected and $1-2bn related to asset impairments in an update two weeks ago.
Consensus forecasts have subsequently been lowered to around US$5.75 billion, though UBS expects it to do slightly better than that and expects the dividend to increase by 10%.
“Based on our conversations, we sense the market is now pricing in a potential slowdown of the buyback and a less than 10% increase of the dividend,” said the Swiss bank.
“As such, a decision to leave the buyback unchanged and increase the dividend by 10% would likely be taken positively."
Consensus for net cash flow from operations is $6.66 billion, adds UBS.
More generally, any comment on its greening commitments, windfall taxes and commitment to the UK will be heavily scrutinised.
Shares today were up 1.5% at 461.5p, nearer the bottom than the top of its 12-month trading range.