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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK

Archive

Canadian rate cut could come, US inflation in focus

A Canadian interest rates decision, flash PMI data, US GDP and the Federal Reserve’s closely watched PCE inflation gauge are the main macro events next week.

It’s a fairly quiet macro week for the UK, with the preliminary PMI data to be revealed on Wednesday morning, following the June updates that showed Britain's service sector saw growth slow to a seven-month low, while manufacturing output also unexpectedly slowed from May's near-two-year high.

On Thursday there will be UK car production and the CBI business optimism index and industrial trends survey.

Traders around the world will be keeping an eye out for the US PCE inflation numbers on Friday, with the last update having showed inflation slowed as expected in May, with core inflation softening to a new cyclical low.

Bank of Canada due to cut soon

The Canadian central bank decision is not expected to see rates cut further, but it could, as economists are expecting two quarter-point cuts before the end of the year.

At its last meeting in June, the BoC concluded that its monetary policy did not need to be quite so restrictive, saying "recent data has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target."

Governor Tiff Macklen said there was "sustained evidence" inflation was easing and it was "reasonable to expect" further interest rate cuts.

Economists at ING said: "With inflation now comfortably within its 1-3% target range and rising labour supply and weaker hiring pushing the unemployment rate up by 1.6 percentage points from its July 2022 lows, there is growing evidence that excess supply is forming in the economy.

"High interest costs continue to hurt the household sector with debt service costs as a proportion of income at 30+ year highs, contributing to the Canadian economy likely growing just 1% this year. As such, we expect a further 50bp of rate cuts before year-end."

Monday 22 July

Economic announcements: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (US)

Tuesday 23 July

Economic announcements: Consumer Confidence Flash (EU), Redbook (US), Existing Home Sales (US), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (US), Money Supply (US), API Crude Oil Stock Change (US)

Wednesday 24 July

Economic announcements: Flash PMI Services (UK, EU, US), Flash PMI Manufacturing (UK, EU, US), Flash PMI Composite (UK, EU, US), Bank of Canada Policy Decision, MBA Mortgage Applications (US), New Homes Sales (US), Crude Oil Inventories (US)

Thursday 25 July

Economic announcements: Car Production (UK), CBI Business Optimism Index (UK), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (UK), M3 Money Supply (EU), Continuing Claims (US), Durable Goods Orders (US), GDP (Preliminary) (US), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Pending Homes Sales (US)

Friday 26 July

Economic announcements: Personal Consumption Expenditures (US), Personal Income (US), Personal Spending (US), U. of Michigan Confidence (Final) (US)

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