ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) investors will be closely watching the manufacturer of chip-making equipment’s orders when it hands down its second quarter earnings on July 17, say analysts at UBS.
“Sentiment has remained relatively optimistic into earnings, however, there is increasing nervousness around the order number which disappointed last quarter at €3.6 billion,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
They believe TSMC EUV orders for 2nm capacity build are still not present in the order book but should appear in the coming quarter, for initial ramp in the second half of 2025.
The consensus expectation is for orders of €4.6 billion in orders, but the analysts believe there is the potential for greater than €5 billion.
“In our estimates net tool demand for the initial ramp of 40-45kwpm capacity is 20-25 tools, however, this could be higher if TSMC decides to pull in some capacity,” they wrote.
“We also believe strong 3nm could lead to some upside this year. There could also be further upside from HBM capacity builds, as only one memory player so far has placed orders.”
The bank’s analysts also see ASML updating its 2024 guidance.
It currently expects flat revenues for 2024 and €35 billion to €40 billion for 2025, at the mid to high end of the €30 billion to €40 billion range.
“For 2025, we estimate €38 billion in revenue (toward the high end of the range). Therefore, we believe ASML is likely to update its 2024 guide with low to mid-single-digit revenue growth with 2025 guidance unchanged,” they wrote.
They have a ‘Buy’ rating and €1,050 (US$1,135) price target on ASML, which closed on Wednesday at about $1,071.