- FTSE 100 up 64 points at 8,235
- Polling day
- New car registrations lift in June
3.56pm: FTSE 100 to close lower
London's FTSE 100 is on track to close Thursday out nearly 0.8% higher as Brits up and down the country head to their local polling stations to vote on the general election.
Nearly all polls are pointing to a Labour majority, but the question looms over whether the Tories will be the official opposition and whether it will be a historic landslide victory for Starmer's party.
YouGov posted its final poll yesterday revealing that Labour would take 431 seats, while the Conservatives are expected to win 102, followed by the Lib Dems with 72.
Should these polls be correct, it would represent the largest majority in Labour history and the worst-ever result for the Tories, with cabinet members and high-ranking MPs projected to lose seats.
In a light day for company news, Smith & Nephew led the charge for the blue-chip index after it rallied more than 7%.
It comes after it was revealed that activist investor Cevian Capital had built a stake in the replacement hip and knee maker.
The Swedish hedge fund, which has previously taken positions in Aviva, Vodafone, Pearson and RSA Insurance, declared a stake of 5.02%.
3.40pm: Currencies and commodities today
As the FTSE 100 moves towards what could be its last close under a Sunak-led government, here's a look at how commodities and currencies have performed today:
- Bitcoin/USD: -5.4% at $56,994
- GDP/USD: flat at $1.276
- GDP/EUR: flat at €1.181
- EURO/USD: +0.1% at $1.08
- Brent Crude: flat at $87.27
- WTI Crude: -0.2% at $83.72
- Gold: flat at $2,360
- Silver: -0.2% at $30.47
3.24pm: Peel Hunt rallies on optimistic outlook
Shares in Peel Hunt rallied more than 5% today after it said trading had improved in the past three months with “tentative” signs of a pick-up in equity and capital markets.
Ahead of its AGM, the broker added revenues for the first quarter of its 2025 calendar year are ahead of the equivalent prior year period and in line with market expectations.
“During the period, we have advised clients in relation to a number of ECM [equity capital market] transactions, including acting as global co-ordinator on two IPOs executed on the London market," a statement said.
"We are encouraged by an increase in activity in both our Execution Services and institutional trading businesses.”
2.59pm: Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) shares drop on eye study
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) shares have dropped by close to 4% this week, shedding more than £350 billion from its market cap, after a study suggested there may be a link between its blockbuster weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic and vision loss.
Those who have been prescribed the weight-loss injection are at a higher risk of developing an eye condition linked to blindness, the study said.
People with diabetes who take the treatment were around four times more likely to be diagnosed with non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (naion), the research revealed.
Jakob Westh Christensen, analyst at eToro said: "Considering that over 50% of Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO)’s sales are attributed to these two blockbuster drugs and with a promising projected growth trajectory, any significant issues with the drugs could pose a threat to earnings and stock prices.
"However, the relatively minor market reaction indicates that investors are not overly concerned about this initial study.
"It is important to note that this study is relatively small and has limited statistical power. The findings do not prove that the medications caused the eye complications, which are commonly associated with diabetes.
"To establish any connection properly, a much larger study must be conducted."
2.42pm: High street lenders cut mortgage rates
Some of the UK's largest high-street banks have begun cutting mortgage rates as they look to take advantage of the pent-up demand after the election and when base rates are cut.
Both HSBC and Barclays reduced their rates for the second time in as many weeks, with the latest changes set to come into effect tomorrow.
Barclays lowered its rates by 0.7% while the exact drop at HSBC is yet to be revealed.
Halifax, NatWest and Santander all reduced their fixed-rate mortgages earlier this week, with the cuts having already been brought into effect.
More lenders are expected to join the mortgage rate price war in the coming months, potentially causing banks to lower levels even further.
At the end of June, NatWest, Barclays and HSBC all confirmed a round of mortgage rate cuts.
1.54pm: TSMC soars to record highs
London blue chips are experiencing one of their strongest trading sessions in recent weeks as the FTSE 100 ticks more than 1% higher ahead of the general election results tomorrow.
Over in Asia, world-leading microchip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has jumped to an all-time-high share price of 1,010 new Taiwan dollars (244p).
It brings TSMC’s year-to-date rally to 70% thanks to an insatiable demand for high-spec artificial intelligence-optimised microchips.
TSMC is the world’s largest and most sophisticated manufacturer (colloquially known in the sector as a foundry) of microchips, with its market capitalisation the eighth-largest globally among listed companies, in front of Berkshire Hathaway but below Facebook parent Meta.
Analysts do not expect chip demand to slow down any time soon, with a recent Bloomberg poll predicting a 36% revenue growth rate in TSMC’s second quarter- the fastest pace of growth since the last quarter of 2022.
1.31pm: Wage growth to slow in boost to rate cut hopes
Hopes that interest rates will be lowered in the next few months have risen after a Bank of England survey revealed employers are expecting wage bills to grow at a slower pace than first predicted.
The Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey, which is closely watched by the Monetary Policy Committee, found that companies expected wage growth to rise by 4.2% on a three-month average basis in July, marking a 0.3% dip from prior predictions.
It represents the lowest level of wage growth expectations since May 2022.
Wage growth has currently been rising at rates to high for the Bank of England's liking, but today's survey indicates that the market is cooling, which could influence MPC members into voting to cut rates from highs of 5.25%.
"Annual wage growth was 6.0% in the three months to June, unchanged from the three months to May," the BoE said.
"Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.8 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages."
1.09pm: Carmakers call on government to boost EV demand
Automotive industry bodies are calling for the next government to incentivise Brits to purchase EVs, as the sector continues to suffer from dampened demand.
Britain's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said the country's leaders need to find a way to "re-energise" sales, urging them to offer new financial incentives.
It comes after monthly automotive sales figures showed that only a fifth of new EVs are purchased by consumers, while the main portion of sales is conducted by fleet buyers such as rental firms which acquire the vehicles in bulk.
In 2023, consumers accounted for a quarter of new EV purchases.
Mike Hawes, chief executive at SMMT said: "The private consumer market continues to shrink against a difficult economic backdrop, but with the right policies in place, the next government can re-energise the market and deliver a faster, fairer zero emission transition.”
12.45pm: How will the election affect the pound?
As the FTSE 100 pushes close to 1% higher today, the effects of the election are being considered across the entire financial spectrum, one area in particular being the pound and foreign exchange.
Jane Foley at Rabobank, noted the positive effects after the currency lifted 0.14% this morning to $1.2757.
"Through most of this year the pound has clung on to the position as the second best performing G10 currency," she said.
"This morning, GBP has crept into first place following the USD’s retreat with US yields."
The expected victory for Labour "could result in a relief rally for the pound with investors looking ahead to what they hope will be a period of calm UK politics", Foley says.
"That said, a super-majority could kindle fears that Labour’s left wing could be bolstered."
12.26pm: Cineworld to close dozens of cinema sites
Cineworld is planning to close dozens of its cinemas as part of its restructuring as the industry continues to be wiped away due to the rise in streaming, Sky News has reported.
Close to a quarter of the 100 UK sites could close under new plans, while discussions with landlords over tweaking rental costs are expected to take place at close to half of the locations.
Back in 2022, Cineworld filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US as its multi-million dollar debt pile became increasingly unmanageable.
A little after, it delisted its shares from the London Stock Exchange, after a restructuring agreement meant lenders took control while shareholders got nothing.
Approximately US$4.5bn of the company’s debt was swapped for shares as senior lenders became the sole owners through a newly incorporated company, called NewCo/New Cineworld.
New debt financing worth around US$1.7bn was obtained, while equity capital in the range of US$800mln was raised.
12.07pm: Threads hits 175 million monthly active users
Close to one year after it was released, Meta's Threads has announced it has reached 175 million monthly active users, indicating it still has some way to go if it wants to challenge other social media platforms.
Launched in July 2023, Threads aimed to take advantage of the turbulence created by Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter/X, after he cut staff, changed its verification system and slashed content moderation in a bid to allow "absolutely free speech".
Meta attempted to seize the opportunity, using the momentum of a rivalry between Zuckerberg and Musk, which led to talks of a cage fight between the two, to help place Threads as a challenger to X.
Musk even threatened to launch legal action against Meta when the app was released.
However, it seems Threads, for the time being, may not be as threatening of a rival as first suspected, with its 175 million users lagging behind the billions-a-month that flood to sites such as Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and Instagram.
11.45am: Air fares on the rise
Air travellers have been warned that fares will have to rise to enable airlines to meet the cost of cutting emissions.
Luis Gallego, the boss of British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, said introducing "more expensive, sustainable fuel (SAF)" would “have a big impact” on the industry.
“Flying is going to be more expensive. That is an issue, we are trying to improve efficiency to mitigate that, but it will have an impact on demand,” he said in an interview with the FT.
Decarbonisation has to be brought in globally in a consistent way, said Gallego, and not in a way that threatens European aviation.
11.22am: EU import tariffs on Chinese EVs comes into effect
The EU has imposed hefty import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, as the continental bloc looks to limit the "unfair subsidisation" benefits for manufacturers in the Asian nation.
Added to existing import duties of 10%, the extra tariffs of up to 38% for some exporters will start on July 5 and will remain in place until a definitive decision is made in November.
Officials in Brussels and Beijing have been in discussions to come to deal with the issue in the hopes of avoiding a trade war.
Yesterday, the German automotive industry urged the EU against imposing the tariffs, warning that European and American car manufacturers would be hurt by the move and that China could retaliate with its own measures.
“Anti-subsidy tariffs are not an adequate measure to strengthen European competitiveness and resilience in the long term,” the VDA said.
10.56am: German economic recovery suffers fresh blow
German factory output suffered a steep decline in May, providing another blow to chancellor Olaf Scholz in his bid to guide the country back to economic recovery.
Orders tanked by 1.6% in the month from April to May, moving in the opposite direction compared to market expectations, which had hoped for a recovery after industry weakness at the start of 2024.
Foreign demand was also weak, with export orders slipping by 2.8%, going against Germany's typical characteristic of being one of the top sellers of products globally.
Orders were down 8.6% year-on-year in May, marking its lowest level of demand since the midst of the pandemic in June 2020.
Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “These data suggest that the downturn in factory orders remained well entrenched in the second quarter.
“Strong real disposable income growth is now likely driving a rebound in consumption growth."
Germany's main index the DAX 40 lifted by 0.35% today, while the FTSE 100 is up by around 54 points.
10.38am: Marston's appoints new chairman
Marston’s, the pub group, has appointed former Vertu Motors (AIM:VTU) director Ken Lever as its new chairman, replacing Willian Rucker next week.
Lever, who brings experience working in leadership roles at the car dealership will become non-executive chairman and the hospitality firm on July 8.
It follows the recent hiring of Justin Platt as chief executive in January after the sudden departure of Andrew Andrea, who spent two years at the helm.
Lever brings extensive experience, having held "held a number of senior executive and non-executive positions at UK listed firms, across multiple sectors including retail, manufacturing, construction, software and business services," the company said.
He recently retired from the board of Vertu Motors (AIM:VTU) and serves as non-executive chairman at data company Cirata, formerly known as WANdisco, and waste management firm Biffa.
Marston’s operates 1,370 pubs and employs around 10,000 staff and recently reported a 5.20% increase in revenue, reaching £428.10 million for the half-year ending March 30.
10.05am: Construction growth slows more than expected in June
Britain's construction sector saw growth for the fourth consecutive month in June, however, it was slightly held back after a dip in output from the housebuilding industry.
S&P Global's UK construction PMI reached 52.2 last month, down from May's 54.7 and lower than the 53.5 that markets had hoped for.
Keeping above the 50 mark that separates the industry from growth and contraction, much of the gains came from commercial activity, while housing output fell.
The dip in the housebuilding sector came after it recorded its first increase in 19 months in May.
Andrew Harker at S&P Global said: "Continued growth of the UK construction sector in June meant that the sector has recorded sustained expansion throughout the second quarter of the year.
"While there were signs of a slowdown in the latest survey period, most notably around housing activity, firms indicated that a slowdown in new order growth was in part related to election uncertainty.
"We may therefore see trends improve once the election period comes to an end."
9.47am: Barclays offloads German consumer banking arm
Shares in Barclays jumped more than 1.5% higher this morning after it confirmed the sale of its German consumer banking business to Bawag, the Austrian lender.
Bawag paid a "small premium to net assets" for the division, but Barclays said the sale is not expected to increase shareholder returns.
The cash sale of Hamburg-based Consumer Bank Europe is expected to release around €4 billion (£3.4 billion) of risk-weighted assets.
"This is another example of disciplined execution," said the FTSE 100-listed bank, referring to the plan presented at an investor update in February.
Consumer Bank Europe, which offers credit cards, consumer loans and deposits to customers in Germany and Austria, had gross assets of €4.7 billion at the end of March.
Bawag said the purchase was expected to make a profit before tax contribution of over €100 million in 2027 once the deal is fully integrated.
9.25am: New car sales hit 1 million in 2024
New car sales in the UK reached more than a million in the first six months of the year for the first time since the pandemic, with signs the sector is finally recovering after years of headwinds.
Fresh data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed new car registrations lifted by 1.1% in June to more than 179,250, taking the year-to-date figure to over one million.
However, when looking at the figures compared to pre-pandemic levels, new car sales are down more than 20%, indicating lingering weakness in the market.
So far in 2024, 1,006,763 new cars have been registered, up 6.0% on the previous year but still down -20.7% on 2019
Here are the top ten models: https://t.co/cHHkC7a1Eq pic.twitter.com/jaiRRbqkQB
— SMMT (@SMMT) July 4, 2024
SMMT boss Mike Hawes said: "The year’s midpoint sees the new car market in its best state since 2021 – but this belies the bigger challenge ahead.
"The private consumer market continues to shrink against a difficult economic backdrop, but with the right policies in place, the next government can re-energise the market and deliver a faster, fairer zero emission transition.
"All parties are agreed on the need to cut carbon and replacing older fossil fuel based technologies with new electrified powertrains is the essential step to achieving that goal."
9.04am Smith & Nephew leads FTSE 100 risers
Smith & Nephew PLC (LSE:SN), the medical equipment manufacturer, is leading the FTSE 100 risers this morning after it jumped close to 6.5% on the back of news activist investor Cevian Capital had built a stake.
The Swedish hedge fund, which has previously taken positions in Aviva, Vodafone, Pearson and RSA Insurance, declared a stake of 5.02% in the replacement hip and knee maker.
S&N shares, which hit almost a decade low last year and have fallen around 19% over the past 12 months, traded at 1,048p on Thursday.
Cevian's strategy is to acquire significant minority ownership positions in European public companies and "work as an owner" to improve value.
According to its website, the fund typically acquires stakes in companies that it believes have leading market positions, produce strong cashflows, benefit from robust long-term demand dynamics and "are overlooked, misunderstood or out-of-favor with investors".
8.41am: Morning so far
London's blue chips surged at the open in what could be the last day with Rishi Sunak as prime minister, with Brits heading to local polling stations for the first general election in nearly five years.
Labour, going off multiple final polls, is set for a landslide victory today, but questions are seemingly now turning to whether Starmer's party will take the 210-seat gap required to make it largest majority in UK parliamentary history.
Meanwhile, in a quiet day in the world of business, the FTSE 250 polymer maker, reported a strong performance in the third quarter with group volume increasing by 20% to 979 tonnes compared to the same period last year.
Revenue in the period rose by 2% year-on-year to £74 million.
Tesco has revealed its staff have recieved a total of £30 million from its share scheme, which offers workers discounted investment opportunities in the UK's largest supermarket.
A worker who invested an average of £68 a month over the last five years is set to be awarded profits of more than £2,500.
Finally, preliminary car registration data from the UK's industry body revealed it crossed the million mark in the first half of 2024, a feat not achieved since the pandemic.
8.24am: Tesco staff to split £30 million pot
Some 20,000 Tesco workers are set to split a bonus of £30 million, using funds which have been generated through the supermarket's share scheme.
An employee who has invested the typical £68 per month over the last five years is on track to receive £6,640 for their £4,080 investment, netting them a profit of £2,560.
Payouts from Tesco's "save as you earn" scheme are said to have been high due to the grocer's "strong performance" in recent times, having most recently bolstered market share whilst also seeing growth across most of its divisions.
Most of the staff set to receive the bonus either work on the shop floor or in distribution centres, the UK's largest supermarket explained.
It comes after chief executive Ken Murphy recieved slight pushback for his £10 million annual pay package, which is the largest of any UK-listed retailer.
The scheme provides staff at Tesco, of which there are 30,000 across the UK, with the chance to buy shares in the supermarket at a discount.
7.55am: Polling day
Brits up and down the country will head to polling stations today between 7am and 10pm to place their vote in the first general election since the pandemic.
Nearly all polls are pointing to a Labour majority, but the question looms over whether the Tories will be the official opposition and whether it will be a historic landslide victory for Starmer's party.
YouGov posted its final poll yesterday revealing that Labour would take 431 seats, while the Conservatives are expected to win 102, followed by the Lib Dems with 72.
Should these polls be correct, it would represent the largest majority in Labour history and the worst-ever result for the Tories, with cabinet members and high-ranking MPs projected to lose seats.
Meanwhile, Focal Data has predicted Labour will win 444 seats, giving it s historic majority of 238 - the largest ever.
Elsewhere, More in Common has forecast a 210 majority for Starmer, giving Labour one seat more than the record 209 won by Stanley Baldwin's Tory party in 1924.
7.37am: New car regs lift 'slightly'
Registration of new cars in the UK rose "slightly" last month and as the industry shifts into the second half of 2024 it reached the "million motors" mark for the first time since 2019, an industry body revealed today.
In the year so far, battery electric vehicles have maintained the same market share as in 2023, according to preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers.
Further figures will be released at 8.00 am by the industry body.
Meanwhile, in the US Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rivian Automotive Inc's latest delivery numbers showed electric vehicle (EV) sales were down but not out, Bank of America analysts believe.
Rivian reported second-quarter deliveries of 13,790, 24% higher than the consensus estimate, while Tesla beat the consensus by 1% at 437,812 vehicles delivered.
“There have been increasing concerns that electric vehicle (EV) sales would remain stagnant, but both Tesla and Rivian sales showed there are some signs of life,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a note to clients.
7.15am: FTSE 100 to open higher
London blue chips are set to start the day slightly higher, up around 15 points at 8,183, as the UK move a day closer to a potentially new government.
Latest polling figures from Survation revealed the left-wing party was on track to win by a landslide, in what would be the largest-ever majority.
Keir Starmer's party is predicted to win 484 of the 650 seats up for grabs, outperforming the 418 taken by former party leader Tony Blair in his historic win back in 1997.
The Conservatives, which have been in control for 14 years, are set to win just 64 seats, the lowest amount since it was created back in 1834, Survation revealed.
Overnight, the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares barring those in Japan lifted 0.9% to reach its highest since April 2022.