The last working week of June will be much quieter for UK macroeconomic data following the Bank of England decision, though the gross domestic product (GDP) update on Friday could be seized upon by political parties ahead of the general election the following week.
US GDP is also due on Thursday, a day ahead of the release of core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
Both the headline and core PCE data have eased significantly from their respective 2022 peaks to the current 2.7-2.8% level, but above the Fed’s 2% target.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to ‘modest further progress’ in inflation at the recent Fed meeting but added ‘greater confidence’ in inflation is needed before policies are loosened.
Economists expect US headline PCE to come in at 2.6% YoY, versus the 2.7% prior. Core numbers are forecast at 2.6%, versus the 2.8% prior.
There are five big dates in markets over the next three weeks, says forex strategist Francesco Pesole at ING, which could move the dollar.
Next Sunday, 30 June, there is the first round of the French parliamentary election – although certainty on how far Marine Le Pen’s far-right party has advanced will only be clear after the 7 July round of constituency run-offs.
Another political event to watch this week is the Iranian presidential election on Friday, although reports suggest a run-off on 5 July is likely, with three candidates seen as major contenders: one reformist and two conservatives.
Key economic data in the coming week
Monday
UK events: CBI Industrial Trends Orders
US events: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auction
EU events: Consumer Inflation Expectations
Tuesday
UK events: 10-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction
US events: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price, CB Consumer Confidence, API Crude Oil Stock Change, Fed speakers (Cook, Bowman)
EU events: None
Wednesday
UK events: 15-Year Treasury Gilt Auction, CBI Distributive Trades
US events: MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, Bank Stress Tests
EU events: None
Thursday
UK events: Car Production
US events: Durable Goods Orders, GDP Quarterly Growth, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Fed speakers (Barkin)
EU events: Loans to Companies, Loans to Households, M3 Money Supply, Economic Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Inflation Expectations, Industrial Sentiment, Selling Price Expectations, Services Sentiment
Friday
UK events: Current Account, GDP Quarterly Growth, Business Investment
US events: Core PCE Price Index , Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Baker Hughes Rig Counts
EU events: None