FirstGroup publishes annual results next week in the unusual position of knowing its UK rail business will be nationalised within the next parliament if Labour is elected, as polls suggest is likely.
Whether it makes reference to that possibility and what it is doing about it remains to be seen, but the fact is that UK rail has been effectively state-run since the outbreak of Covid so, in the short-term anyway, there might not be many changes.
Indeed, broker Citi expects the current rail franchises to run their core term and be brought in-house by the government post the end of the contract, which might be a boost for FirstGroup.
“In fact, we see potential for extension of contracts expiring in the next 12 months by one to two years.
“This is likely to be upside for FirstGroup given GWR and SWR are expiring in the next 12 months.”
FirstGroup runs the Avanti West Coast, Great Western and South Western rail franchises in partnerships.
Finals are due on Tuesday 11 June.