Goldman Sachs predicts that the global market for obesity treatments will surge to $130 billion by 2030, up from an earlier estimate of $100 billion.
This revised forecast reflects the growing demand for anti-obesity medications, particularly those based on GLP-1 receptor agonists, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate appetite and blood sugar levels.
Still, Goldman looks to be at the conservative end of the range, which some research houses have put at $180-$200bn.
The Wall Street giant attributes this market expansion to several key developments. The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved Eli Lilly and Co's (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound (tirzepatide) for chronic weight management, and its initial commercial launch has seen unprecedented consumer demand.
Additionally, Novo Nordisk's (NYSE:NVO) Wegovy received an expanded FDA label in March 2024, now approved to reduce the risk of major heart complications in overweight or obese individuals with heart disease.
Eli Lilly’s portfolio of obesity treatments is expected to generate substantial revenue growth. Goldman Sachs has increased its 2030 revenue forecast for Eli Lilly’s anti-obesity medications to $56.6 billion, up from $49.7 billion.
This includes sales from tirzepatide products such as Monjouro and Zepbound. Lilly’s strategic acquisition of additional manufacturing capacity in April is anticipated to meet the rising demand.
The obesity treatment market is poised for continued innovation and expansion.
Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) are increasing their manufacturing capacities to address significant demand.
New treatments, including oral medications and injectable agents from competitors, are expected to enter the market later in the decade. Amgen’s novel GLP-1 agonist, MariTide, shows promising results and is set to enter Phase 3 trials.
Goldman remains 'neutral' on Eli Lilly shares, with a 12-month price target of $785, up from $740.
This price target reflects a blend of discounted cash flow analysis and price-to-earnings valuation. The bank highlights the potential for significantly higher-than-expected sales from Eli Lilly’s incretin franchise, including Zepbound and Mounjaro, which are used for obesity and diabetes management.