Goldman Sachs has updated its outlook for Brent crude oil, anticipating that prices will average $82 per barrel in 2025, with a price range of $75 to $90 in most scenarios.
This stability is attributed to OPEC+, which is expected to maintain its current production cuts due to unexpectedly high oil inventories and the potential impact on short-term oil profits.
Despite the possible continuation of production restrictions, the global oil market shows significant spare capacity, which Goldman notes could limit long-term price increases.
The investment bank points out that while lower production from OPEC+ tends to support higher immediate prices, the presence of high spare capacity and recent inventory builds are likely to cap future price hikes.
Goldman observes that these factors will contribute to the expected stability in oil prices over the next year, even as geopolitical tensions and other risks continue to pose potential fluctuations.
Its analysis follows recent signals from Saudi Arabia and other major producers that they are not planning to increase output soon, mainly to sustain oil revenues that fund large-scale national projects like Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030.
These strategic economic reforms aim to diversify away from oil dependency, underlining the importance of maintaining oil revenue in the short term.
In early afternoon trading, Brent for June delivery was $84.39 a barrel, up 0.6%.