Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (LSE:AML) should deliver a strong fourth-quarter result when it reports next Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs.
The sports car maker has revealed that it finished 2023 well, but Goldman said its fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA estimate of £147 million (£268.2 million for the full year) is around 10% behind the company-compiled consensus forecast.
This is because the US investment bank has factored in higher costs related to ongoing product launches, such as the Aston Martin Vantage road car, for which delivered are scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2024.
For the whole of 2024, Goldman said it forecasts adjusted EBITDA of £455 million, which is around 3% ahead of the City average.
"We expect the new Vantage to play an important role in improving AML’s financials over coming quarters," analysts said, forecasting volumes from the road car reaching circa 2,200 units in 2025, when full availability of both the coupe and, they anticipate, a new Vantage roadster.
As per AML’s targets, the analysts expect the new Vantage to reach a at least 40% gross margin, once at a through-cycle volume production rate and see the coupe and roadster making almost 24% of deliveries in 2025, 15.7% of revenue and 14.7% of gross profit.