Rio Tinto recently reiterated 2024 production guidance while the miner should state iron ore unit costs will be flat with improvements in copper and aluminium in its upcoming earnings, according to UBS brokers.
Last month, Rio said it expects its Pilbara operations to produce between 323 and 338mt of iron ore in the coming year, while mined copper is predicted to increase to between 660 and 720kt.
UBS added it sees no material risk to the 2023 dividend payment with some potential for an upside surprise.
Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) meanwhile saw lower production in every commodity except gold and coal in 2023, with only zinc and ferrochrome tipped to improve in 2024.
Chief executive Gary Nagle said the outcome was in line with the group's previous indications and that the second half had been stronger, especially in zinc, copper, nickel and coal.
Own-sourced copper production of 1,010,100 tonnes was 48,000 tonnes (5%) lower than in 2022, primarily reflecting the sale of Cobar.
The miner is still waiting on regulatory clearance for its Teck coal acquisition and spin-out and with coal prices under pressure from oversupply, is likely to keep the divided to the minimum under its current policy to build up cash ahead of completion.
In total, UBS expects BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo and Glencore to return around US$10bn to shareholders with the December 23 results, though that would be down 20% from June’s US$12.6bn.
BHP should pay out US$3.3bn of dividends for its half year or a 55% ratio to earnings, Rio $4.6bn and Anglo $0.5bn (40% payout).
Glencore is forecast to be at US$1.2bn with no top-up dividend or buy-back to be announced due to the US$6.9bn acquisition of a 77% stake interest in Teck met-coal.
Among those, UBS sees risk to those numbers at BHP and Glencore.
Glencore and Rio report their results on Wednesday, 21 February.