Final results from BP PLC (LSE:BP.) on Tuesday will be the first since interim chief executive Murray Auchincloss was confirmed as the new permanent boss and while the figures are likely to have been dented by a weak finish to the year, some big returns for shareholders are still likely.
Although the FTSE 100 oil giant's shares last year regained levels not seen since before the pandemic, analysts at UBS predict fourth-quarter earnings numbers are likely to be weak given the impact of refinery maintenance, lower refinery margins and seasonally higher costs.
UBS's estimates for net income are, however, almost a third below the wider City analyst consensus.
"However, we expect the company to maintain the pace of share-buybacks at $1.5 billion given the one-off nature of these effects and cash in from working capital effects and disposals," the Swiss bank said in its preview.
BP's dividends "have the potential to positively surprise", with a possible increase in the proportion of surplus cash distributed as buybacks also on the cards.
BP shares, however, have lost around a fifth of their value from recent highs in October, mirroring the decline in oil prices, which enjoyed a slight rally in line with oil prices in late January.
But UBS noted that BP's shares have de-rated more than the rest of the sector over the past year.