A 40% uptick in the share prices of Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV) and Bellway PLC (LSE:BWY) since October suggests the market reckons the worst of the storm has passed for the housebuilding sector.
Updates next week from the pair should give a clearer indication if that is the case.
Demand trends are what investors will focus on, suggests UBS, and it expects Bellway to reiterate that completions this year will be around 7,500.
First-half completions will be 3,896, says the investment bank (in a very precise forecast), at an average asking price of £310,000.
Revenues and earnings will bear the brunt of the recent uncertainty, adds the bank, which sees sales of £1.2 billion, down 32%, and underlying earnings of £132 million, down 58%.
For the full year, UBS expects Bellway to guide towards underlying profits of £222 million at a 10% margin.
At Barratt, UBS expects 5,950 completions with an average price of £309,000 during the half year with underlying profits down by 74% at £131 million.
For the full year, UBS expects 13,244 completions excluding joint ventures.