The UK government borrowed less than expected in December, which could spark a pre-election tax giveaway by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in March’s Budget.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed public sector borrowing fell to £7.8 billion last month, around half the sum borrowed a year earlier and the lowest figure for a December since 2019.
The figure was driven down by inflation-related debt interest costs, and is substantially lower than the £14 billion estimate for the month from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s fiscal watchdog.
Central government debt interest payable was £4.0 billion in December, £14.1 billion less than in December 2022 and the lowest December figure since 2020.
Borrowing in the financial year to December 2023 was £119.1 billion, £11.1 billion more than in the same nine-month period the previous year and the fourth-highest financial year-to-December borrowing on record.
Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economic, estimated the Chancellor could have £20 billion of headroom for tax cuts in March.
“After nine months of the 2023/24 fiscal year, borrowing is on track to undershoot the OBR’s full-year borrowing forecast of £123.9 billion by £5.0 billion,” she said.
“What’s more, with market interest rate expectations and long-dated gilt yields having fallen since November, we suspect the OBR will revise down its borrowing forecast significantly from 2025/26.”
“That may provide the Chancellor with 'headroom' against his fiscal mandate of about £20 billion in the Budget,” she estimated.
She suggested this would probably allow him to unveil a freeze in fuel duty in April 2024 (costing about £6.0 billion a year) but perhaps also to announce more “crowd-pleasing measures”, such as a 1p cut to income tax (costing £6.9 billion a year), while still maintaining fiscally prudent appearances.