European Central Bank and Bank of Japan meetings, 'flash' PMI figures for most major economies, US GDP and UK consumer confidence data are among the areas of macro focus for the week ahead.
ECB and BoJ
Back in December, the European Central Bank basically announced the end of the current rate hiking cycle, which financial markets took to mean that rate cuts were imminent.
The ECB message since has been that no cuts are coming in the first quarter, including this Thursday's meeting, but the door is open in the second.
However, there is "no rush" for the central bank to react, say Deutsche Bank and most other economists, as long as they predict a return to potential growth rates one or two quarters later.
"Certainly not as long as inflation remains off target," says James Knightley at ING, though he notes that the irony of financial markets' current pricing is that "it makes the need for actual policy rate cuts less urgent".
Borrowing conditions in not just Europe have eased since early December, doing the work that actual rate cuts should do, which pushes up inflation risks.
"The most likely outcome of next week’s ECB meeting will be to stress data dependency and to give some insights into potential conditions for a rate cut without pre-committing to anything," said Knightly.
Deutsche economists said recent data, events and commentary have on balance "tilted mildly hawkish" and the risks around their prediction of an April rate cut being wrong is shifting from earlier (March) to later (June) with a quarter-point initial cut more likely than a 50-basis-point move.
As for the BoJ, expectations around a rate rise have diminished significantly in the last few weeks, with the latest economic data lending support to the idea that there is no rush to raise rates out of negative territory.
The weakness of the US dollar in recent weeks has helped ease the pressure, with recent inflation numbers pointing to an easing of price pressures with a sharp slowdown in cash earnings in November.
The central bank is expected to try and begin the process of a more normal monetary policy over the next few months with rates expected to come out of negative territory in the first half of this year, said market analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets.
PMIs, GFP and GfK
Preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) surveys for January are due on Wednesday for manufacturing and services sectors, and a composite of the two for the EU, France, Germany and the UK.
The final European PMIs for December were below initial expectations, suggesting fading momentum in contrast to the ECB's assumption of positive growth in the fourth quarter.
US fourth-quarter GDP numbers on Thursday are unlikely to show the economy grew at the same pace as it did in the third quarter's 4.9%, with personal consumption accounting for 3.1% of that pickup after a weaker performance in the second quarter.
Economists forecast a slowing to around 1.9% or 2%, which would be the weakest quarter since the first half of 2022.
US core PCE on Friday comes a week ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.
"Markets have continued to try and finesses the timing of when the first Fed rate cut is likely to occur, after Powell’s surprisingly dovish shift when the central bank last met just before Christmas," said Hewson.
"This week’s PCE numbers are likely to be a key benchmark for markets after the PCE core deflator slowed to 3.2% in November, slipping from 3.4% in October, and the lowest level since April 2021."
A further slowdown to 2.9% is the consensus forecast, which could see markets firm up the prospect of a rate cut in March.
But with headline CPI ticking higher again the Fed’s key concern remains an early cut reigniting inflationary pressures that have taken so long to get under control, added Hewson.
UK consumer confidence figures from GfK are not likely to have the same effect on Bank of England rate expectations, although last month's numbers were the second in a row to show improvement and the second best since the start of 2022 - though still firmly in negative territory.