Citigroup has updated its European food delivery forecasts to reflect recent app and web data from its innovation lab, which suggest Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (LSE:JET, NASDAQ:GRUB) could have the edge over rivals this results season.
Just Eat is expected to unveil its results for the fourth quarter on 17 January, and Deliveroo is due to publish its results two days later on 19 January.
Citi analysts said their estimates of Just Eat's gross merchandise value (GMV) are in line with general forecasts for the quarter, suggesting “more constructive” optimism for the delivery company's UK and Ireland business, but caution around activities in North America, Europe and Australasia.
Just Eat is expected to deliver more gross transaction value (GTV) in the UK and Ireland, quarter over quarter, than food delivery rival Deliveroo, according to Citi analysts.
The bank's forecast for Deliveroo's GMV for the fourth quarter is 1 percentage point below the market consensus, and its analysts anticipate modestly "weaker growth" internationally than the market is predicting.
Delivery Hero (ETR:DHER, OTCQX:DLVHF), another food delivery company operating in the European market, doesn’t post its quarterly results until Valentine’s Day, on 14 February.
Citi's position is also "more cautious" for the German delivery company's GMV than market consensus, forecasting growth of 2% for the fourth quarter, below consensus forecasts of 6%.
They believe caution among buyers is reflected in the company’s share price, "given recent share price weakness", expecting Delivery Hero (ETR:DHER, OTCQX:DLVHF) will record an adjustment for hyperinflation.
Citi analysts said they expect Delivery Hero (ETR:DHER, OTCQX:DLVHF) to post “a significant hyperinflation adjustment headwind from Americas in light of Argentina FX movements in Dec-23".