A decreasing proportion of oil drilled in the North Sea will ultimately be used in the UK over the coming years, regardless of new licences being awarded, research suggests.
By 2030, oil from UK refineries is set to account for one in every 24 litres of petrol, 31 litres of road diesel and 60 litres of aviation fuel consumed domestically, think tank the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has said.
This compares to the one in every 13 litres of petrol, 16 litres of road diesel and 30 litres of aviation fuel which came from UK oil fields in 2022.
Including new licences accounted for in the North Sea Transition Authority’s maximum production projections, UK oil would make up one in 20, 26 and 60 litres of the respective fuels used in Britain by 2030, the group added.
“The reality is very little of the oil pumped from the North Sea is refined and sold on British soil,” Durham University energy institute fellow Gavin Bridge commented.
“Even then the price is largely dictated by international markets,” he added.
The figures come after the government committed to granting new oil and gas licences for firms in the North Sea, citing domestic production as a boost to energy security.
“The notion that more drilling on the continental shelf boosts our energy security doesn’t stand up to scrutiny,” Bridge said in response.
In 2022, 81% of the 38 million tonnes of oil produced in the British North Sea was exported, for instance, the group said.
Imports made up 47 million tonnes, meaning 13%, or seven million, of that used in refineries came from UK oil fields.
ECIU said the figures were based on demand, alongside import and export shares reducing in line with an expected fall in UK production, as projected by the North Sea Transition Authority.