Glencore is the mining giant with the most scope to disappoint on dividends in the coming results season, suggest analysts at UBS.
All of the mining giants have paid out huge sums in recent years but with the prices of bulk commodities under pressure, UBS suggests some of the payments this time might not be so bumper.
The numbers put forward by the Swiss bank are still handy enough, even so.
In total, UBS expects BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo and Glencore to return around US$10bn to shareholders with the December 23 results, though that would be down 20% from June’s US$12.6bn.
BHP should pay out US$3.3bn of dividends for its half year or a 55% ratio to earnings, Rio $4.6bn and Anglo $0.5bn (40% payout).
Glencore is forecast to be at US$1.2bn with no top-up dividend or buy-back to be announced due to the US$6.9bn acquisition of a 77% stake interest in Teck met-coal.
Among those, UBS sees risk to those numbers at BHP and Glencore, while Rio might surprise on the upside.
Shares in Glencore dipped 0.9% to 453p.