GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) should deliver better than expected fourth-quarter results on January 31, according to Barclays, amid heightened expectations driven by the robust performance of its RSV vaccine, Arexvy.
Analysts at the bank, who also wondered if 2024 could be "the year Zantac goes away?", said the last set of quarterly results were muddied by the performance of Arexvy.
"Though Arexvy's result at 3Q created a lot of confusion, with the inventory stocking benefit and launch costs [were] somewhat unanticipated by the Street, scripts trended well into the end of the year such that we've raised our forecasts and are now above company guidance," they said in a note to clients on Tuesday.
GSK boss Emma Walmsley guided to full year 2023 turnover increasing 12-13%, adjusted operating profit growth of 13-15%, and adjusted EPS up 17-20%.
The focus now shifts to GSK's guidance for 2024, said Barclays, with key factors influencing this including the anticipated third season data for Arexvy, the potential update from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP), and the targeted expansion to the high-risk 50-59 age cohort.
However, this is "offset somewhat" by the looming challenge from the expected entry of Moderna's vaccine into the market in the first half of 2024.
On another front, GSK's Shingrix vaccine faces a predicted decline in the US, which might be balanced by the partnership being ramped up with Zhifei in China. This strategic alliance promises significant revenue growth in the coming years.
Investors and analysts alike are also frequently asking for updates on the longstanding Zantac litigation, Barclays said, with recent developments suggesting "it does feel like this continues to move into the rearview mirror, but we're not totally there yet".
The upcoming Daubert hearing in Delaware, scheduled for January 22, is a "key catalyst" on Zantac.
Other upcoming catalysts include regulatory decisions (Ojjaara in EU and Japan, MenABCWY vaccine in US and EU) and various clinical trial readouts across the portfolio.
The bank has an 'equal weight' rating and 1,575p price target for GSK, which closed at 1,549p yesterday.