HSBC Holdings PLC (LSE:HSBA) can offer investors some pleasant surprises in 2024, according to US bank Jefferies, which forecasts buybacks, special and ordinary dividends will amount to 35% of the current market cap by 2025.
Sales of both the Canadian and French businesses have given the bank a clean slate for the current year, with a special dividend of US$0.21 per share expected in the first half of this year.
Dust still has yet to settle over the amount of write-downs HSBC faces from the France sale and Jefferies has lowered its earnings forecasts for this year and next with tougher competition in the UK also having an impact.
Even so, the US bank still expects cumulative capital returns to total US$54 billion by year-end 2025, with its main capital ratio (CET1) at 14.1%.
Jefferies' target price reduces to 980p (from 1,000p), but the rating remains 'buy'.