Analysts believe reports of Aldi’s "record" Christmas trading aren't all that they seem and instead believe the discount supermarket saw like-for-like volumes decrease.
"Aldi kicks the season off with an own goal," Shore Capital's Clive Black said.
Aldi said sales during December (up until Christmas Eve) reached £1.5 billion, representing an 8% year-on-year rise.
It helped garner praise from both economists and reporters, with some crowning the German retailer the Christmas winner.
However, experts at Shore Capital reckon that while the £1.5 billion figure is a record sum, management will likely be disappointed as it represents around a 2% to 3% fall in like-for-like (LFL) volume growth.
Shore Capital said that the decrease occurs when considering a 4% to 5% contribution from new space and inflationary increases of around 5%.
“If Aldi did deliver LFL volume growth then its new stores would appear to be sagging, which we doubt,” analysts at the broker added.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Aldi though, as the broker notes its Christmas trading was compared against the “amazingly strong” 2022 festive period, which saw sales grow by more than 20%.
Additionally, Aldi has been able to eat up market share throughout the year to become the fourth-largest supermarket in the UK and will also benefit from indications that inflation has begun to subside.
Meanwhile, Lidl has taken the preliminary Christmas crown in the eyes of Shore Capital, which claims the supermarket experienced a 4% spike in volume growth when accounting for space contribution and inflation.
For investors, the listed companies which Shore Capital thinks could be Christmas winners could be M&S and Sainsbury’s - however, it should be noted both are house stocks.