Nielsen grocery data for the four and half weeks to 2 December starkly reveals the share winners & losers in the sector, says broker Shore Capital.
The winners are the German discount chains, Marks & Spencer/Ocado Retail, Sainsbury's and Tesco UK, says Shore while the often over-leveraged are in the losing camp with Iceland rock bottom.
This growing gap between winners and losers in UK grocery will be a key feature of Christmas 2023 trading, suggests the broker.
UK grocery and the food and beverage (F&B) channel should do well, with Nielsen suggesting a grocery retail outlay of c£5bn, which would be a record.
Shore Capital expects the New Year trading updates to confirm the ‘haves’ have taken the bulk of these spoils.
Discount stores Lidl and Aldi, Marks & Spencer/Ocado, Sainsbury and Tesco UK should sustain share gains, with the often financially leveraged businesses such as Asda, Morrisons and Iceland feeling the pinch.
For them, 2024 poses the prospect of favourable comparatives but also higher UK state-driven operating costs.