Specialist mortgage lender Paragon Banking Group PLC (LSE:PAG) reports full-year results on Wednesday 6 December with shares higher than where they were a year ago but trending down in recent months despite solid updates.
Half-year numbers in June showed no ill effects from the wobbles in the housing market, with July's third-quarter update revealing solid trading, with "robust" new business flows, "strong" customer retention and "good" margins.
Second half underlying pre-tax profits should come in at £127 million with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.8%, said UBS, predicting net interest income to be driven up by higher net interest margin (NIM), up 24bps year on year to 3.02%.
"In our view, the focus on the day will be on the outlook for 2024," the UBS analysts said, including on plans for capital returns.
Comments on mortgage affordability for professional buy-to-let landlords and the implications for loan volumes are also expected, along with indications on NIM.