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FTSE 100 Live: Stocks buoyed by cooling EU and US inflation

At the close, London's blue-chip index was up 30.29 points, 0.4%, at 7,453.75 while the FTSE 250 fell 212.38 points, 1.2%, at 18,255.20

  • FTSE 100 closes up 30 points at 7,454
  • US and Eurozone inflation eases
  • Dr Martens warns again on tough US trading

4:40pm: FTSE 100 buoyed by cooling EU and US inflation

The FTSE 100 closed in positive territory, although off earlier highs, as inflation cooled in the US and the EU.

At the close, London's blue-chip index was up 30.29 points, 0.4%, at 7,453.75 while the FTSE 250 fell 212.38 points, 1.2%, at 18,255.20.

Chris Beauchamp at IG said: "Fresh signs of weakening inflation in the eurozone gave stocks a lift on this side of the Atlantic too."

"In both cases, the effect has been to bring forward the expected date of the first rate cuts, providing more hope that 2023’s era of higher rates will be left behind in 2024.”

Dr Martens endured a torrid day, closing down 20%, after its latest warning while Mitchells & Butlers also fell after its results.

4:25pm: Harland & Wollf says revenue could be deferred by accounting change

Shares in Harland & Wolff Group Holdings PLC (AIM:HARL) on Thursday fell after it warned a different approach to revenue recognition could see some revenue being deferred to a later financial period.

The firm said it believes that it is taking a prudent approach to revenue recognition and remains comfortable with the market's expectation of £100 million revenue for this financial year.

However, it noted that a different approach to revenue recognition, whilst not changing the overall value of the contract, could lead to a range of £80 million to £100 million of revenue for this financial year, with any balance deferred until 2024.

It said it was holding talks with its auditors to agree a stance going forward.

Shares slipped 6.4%.

3:53pm: Stifel keeps sell on Asos, cuts target

Shares in Asos are down 1.2% after Stifel lowered its price target and reiterated a sell rating.

“While Asos has made progress on its 'Driving Change' agenda, its balance sheet still gives concern, with elevated stock levels impacting both sales and gross margin and high debt levels impacting [pre-tax profit].

With management guiding to another year of sales decline Stifel expects that Asos will not return to sales growth until financial year 2025 and will not generate a positive pre-tax profit margin until 2025.

Given this, it has cut 2024 and 2025 sales forecasts both by 9% and adjusted Ebitda forecasts by 42% and 21%, respectively.

Its price target moves to 320p while “we wait for signs of an improving consumer environment, further reductions in excess stock and reductions in debt levels in order to potentially be more constructive on the stock.”

3:26pm: Opec strikes productrion cut deal - FT

The Opec+ oil cartel has agreed a deal to cut an extra 1 million barrels a day of oil production while Saudi Arabia will extend a voluntary cut of a similar amount, the Financial Times reported, citing two people familiar with the decision.

The move, which comes after the meeting was delayed from Sunday as Saudi Arabia pushed members to make additional production cuts, has helped boost the price of Brent crude to around he $84 a barrel mark - up 1.1% on the day.

The cut is in line with what the FT reported Saudi Arabia had a provisional agreement for earlier.

Under the deal, the final details of which are being finalised and voted on in the online meeting, Russia is expected to increase its voluntary reduction of 300,000 barrels a day while other members will make additional contributions.

The full breakdown of the allocation of the cuts is not yet available

2:50pm: FTSE 100 off highs after mixed start in the US

The FTSE 100 has come off its highs after a mixed open in the US despite the US central bank’s preferred inflation gauge easing as expected.

Shortly after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 201.86 points, 0.6%, at 35,632.28, the S&P 500 was little changed at 4,551.23 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 20.04 points, 0.1%, at 14,238.45.

Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics said: “The muted rise in real consumption and further decline in core PCE inflation in October will reinforce the growing belief in markets that interest rate cuts are on the horizon.”

Hunter said: “We continue to see a good chance that the Fed will begin cutting rates in March next year, a little sooner than markets are expecting.”

“And with a growing body of evidence that inflation will be lose to the 2% target by mid-2024, we also think markets still haven’t gone far enough in pricing in rate cuts over the next 18 months.”

2:15pm: Former Chancellor Alistair Darling dies, aged 70

Alistair Darling, the former chancellor, has died, aged 70.

Darling was Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2007 to 2010, steering the UK economy through the financial crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the global recession that followed it.

He was an Edinburgh MP from 1987 until he stepped down from parliament in 2015.

A statement issued on behalf of the family of the former Labour chancellor said:

“The death of Alistair Darling, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer and long-serving member of the Labour cabinet, was announced in Edinburgh today.”

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he was “deeply saddened” by news of Darling’s death.

“Alistair will be remembered as a statesman of unimpeachable integrity whose life was defined by a strong sense of social justice and who gained a global reputation for the assured competence and the exercise of considered judgement he brought to the handling of economic affairs,” he said.

The present Chancellor Jeremy Hunt called Darling as “one of the great Chancellors, he’ll be remembered for doing the right thing for the country at a time of extraordinary turmoil.”

1:54pm: US inflation gauge cools as expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.2% last month, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis report out Thursday.

From a year ago, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation advanced 3.5%.

The headline PCE index rose 3.0% on-year last month, cooling from September's 3.4% rise.

The figures were in line with market hopes, boosting expectations that interest rates have peaked.

Inflation-adjusted personal spending rose 0.2% last month after a downwardly revised 0.3% advance in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting consumers are reigning back spending ami8d high interest rates.

The Fed’s latest Beige Book survey, released Wednesday, showed economic activity slowed in recent weeks as households pulled back on discretionary spending.

Separate numbers from the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed initial jobless claims amounted to 218,000 in the week that ended November 25 - this past Saturday - an increase from 211,000 the week before. The latest reading came in below the FXStreet-cited market consensus of 220,000. The previous week's reading was upwardly revised from 209,000.

Continuing jobless claims totalled 1.927 million in the week ending November 18, picking up from 1.841 million the week prior. That reading was revised up slightly from 1.840 million.

1:42pm: Lloyds interested in Tesco's banking business - Bloomberg

UK grocer Tesco Plc’s banking business is attracting initial interest from Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY), people with knowledge of the matter said, according to Bloomberg.

Lloyds is among a number of suitors that have been studying a potential deal involving Tesco Bank, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.

Deliberations are at an early stage, and there’s no certainty Lloyds will proceed with a formal offer. The structure of any potential transaction hasn’t been decided, and some bidders could opt to acquire Tesco Bank’s assets and liabilities rather than buy the entire operations.

1:09pm: BofA favours Lloyds as margin and volume pressures ease

Bank of America has highlighted that margin pressure and weak volumes on both sides of the balance sheet - which have weighed on UK domestic bank earnings and share prices - look a little better in October with spreads and volumes relatively stable.

BofA said it still sees deposit migration and spread compression into 2024 but some recovery in mortgage spreads and, potentially, volumes.

A broad product suite and range of brands appear to be helping buy rated Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) navigate this better than peers, supporting strong profitability and capital distributions, it said.

BofA said after a 20 basis point decline in September, new household deposit spreads fell just 2bp in October but remained high at c293bp with deposit volumes relatively stable in October, with households flat and 1% corporate outflows.

The investment bank noted mortgage approvals picked up in October, combined with falling mortgage rates and stabilising house prices, could be an early sign of a modest mortgage market recovery in 2024 which "we would expect to support mortgage spreads."

Lloyds Banking Group shares are 0.3% to the good.

1:05pm: Car production jumps for eight month in a row

Car production in the UK has increased for the eighth month in a row, with more than 91,000 vehicles built in October, new figures show.

The total was almost a third higher than the same month last year, and the best October performance since 2019, said the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

Production for the home and overseas markets grew by 23.9% and 33.4% respectively, with exports driving output.

UK car manufacturing output up 31.6% in October with 91,521 units rolling out of factories.https://t.co/dkPqjsJJc5 pic.twitter.com/xmyh5OadqK

— SMMT (@SMMT) November 30, 2023

More than four in five cars were shipped abroad, with export growth driven by a 58% increase in shipments to the EU, which remains the UK's largest market by far, accounting for almost two-thirds of exports.

12:46pm: Saudi Arabia agrees production cut - FT

The Financial Times reported Saudi Arabia has won provisional backing for further oil production cuts by the Opec+ group, boosting oil prices to the highest in three weeks ahead of a crucial meeting of the cartel.

The meeting, which is being held online rather than in person after being delayed from Sunday, comes as oil producers attempt to support a price that has slipped in recent months and as tensions in the Middle East are heightened by the Israel-Gaza war.

Saudi Arabia, the group’s most powerful member, has a provisional deal for further group-wide production cuts that will see other members agree to contribute, according to people close to the kingdom, after difficult discussions with countries more hesitant to cut supply.

Oil prices are holding firm on the report, up 0.6% at $83.41.

12:43pm: Mortgage rates falling as bond yields drop

Mortgage rates are coming down as UK long-term borrowing costs ease.

Bond yields have tracked lower on expectations that interest rates have peaked and the first rate cuts could come earlier than thought.

???? UK long term borrowing costs are now falling notably - the 5 year rate has gone below 4% for the first time since July in recent days. Mortgage companies are now offering 5 year fixes as low as 4.39%… 10 year at 4.1%.

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 30, 2023

Barclays has revealed a 5-year fixed rate purchase mortgage at 4.39% and a sub-5% 5-year fixed rate deal.

12:28pm: Business confidence at highest level since February

Business confidence in November increased for a second straight month to the highest level since February 2022 before the energy crisis that resulted November 2023 from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a report showed.

The Lloyds Bank business barometer index rose by 3 points to 42%, reflecting gains in both own trading prospects in the next twelve months and optimism about the overall economy.

Sentiment in services was the highest for over two years, while retail rose for a second month and manufacturing was at a 5-month high.

Confidence was the strongest in London and in the three regions of Northern England.

The net balance expecting to increase their prices rose for a fourth consecutive month to a new peak of 61%.

That likely reflects a high proportion of firms continuing to prioritise maintaining profit margins in response to cost pressures. Expectations for wage growth remained historically elevated but were broadly stable even though the net balance of firms planning to increase headcount rose to an 18-month high.

12:03pm: Wall Street seen higher ahead of PCE data

Heading stateside, and US futures are pointing to a upbeat start on Wall Street although investors will be closely watching inflation data ahead of the open.

In pre-market trading, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.4%, while those for the S&P 500 were 0.2% higher, and contracts for the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%.

The US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core personal consumption expenditures index, is expected to have risen 0.2% in October.

Economists forecast the year-on-year increase to have eased to 3.5% from 3.7% in September.

Elsewhere, initial US state unemployment applications, a proxy for lay-offs, are projected to have totalled 220,000 last week, following the previous week’s bigger-than-expected drop to 209,000.

Grocery chain Kroger will release results before Wall Street’s opening bell while PC maker Dell and beauty store chain Ulta report their numbers after the closing bell.

The ongoing Opec meeting will be watched closely given market speculation that production cuts may be unveiled.

Joshua Mahoney at Scope Markets said with energy price weakness having played a key role in driving down inflation, all eyes will be on today’s OPEC meeting as Saudi Arabia seek to bolster the price of their key export.

“While we have seen concerns grow over the potential struggles finding agreement over production levels for nations in Africa, there is speculation that Saudi will seek to drive additional production limits in a bid to lift energy prices,” he said.

11:30am: Oil price rises on talk of production cut at Opec meeting

Energy giants on the FTSE 100 are higher, pushed up by gains in oil prices, ahead of today’s Opec meeting.

Brent crude was 0.9% higher at $83.60/barell with BP up 3.2% and Shell up 1.8%.

Susannah Street at Hargreaves Landown noted there is speculation that addition cuts of up to one million barrels a day could be on the cards to help put a floor under crude prices.

Saudi Arabia has been pushing for reductions to quotas but has met with some resistance from other members particularly in Africa, she noted.

Separately, BP said it has agreed to take full ownership of Lightsource BP, buying the remaining 50% stake in its solar power joint venture as part of the British oil giant's drive to build up its renewable energy capacity.

Under the agreement, BP will pay £254 million.

Reuters also reported BP's search for a new chief executive is set to extend into the first quarter of 2024, citing three sources, while the board's probe into whether previous CEO Bernard Looney breached the code of conduct in his undisclosed personal relationships with staff drags on.

10:55am: ECB on course to declare victory over inflation

ING thinks today's further easing in Eurozone inflation shows for the ECB, that signs of an "imminent victory on inflation are mounting."

It accepts the central bank worries about factors like wage growth and possible spikes in the energy market that could put inflation on a higher path again.

But current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive as bank lending data out earlier this week showed that the effects of higher rates are impacting lending significantly, ING pointed out.

Also, there is still a lot more of the impact of tightening to come as interest payments are still increasing, it explained.

ING feels the market is "therefore right" to start looking at rate cuts for 2024 and it thinks the first one could well happen before the summer.

10:34am: JPMorgan upgrades undervalued NatWest

JPMorgan has upgraded NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ and made it a top pick among European banks.

The investment bank has shifted its portfolio away from short-rates driven net interest income (NII) geared banks as it believes we are at, or near, peak rates in key geographies.

The broker’s other top European picks are BBVA, UBS, ING and ISP.

On NatWest, it sees the stock materially undervalued at 4.8x P/E 2025E.

“While 4Q [net interest margin] could still be under pressure, we see this as largely discounted and in 2024/25 we are in line with consensus on NII.”

Shares in NatWest rose 1.1% to 208.70p.

10:10am: Euro inflation eases more than expected

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.4% in November 2023, down from 2.9% in October according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, well below predctions of 2.7%.

Euro area #inflation at 2.4% in November 2023, down from 2.9% in October. Components: food, alcohol & tobacco +6.9%, services +4.0%, other goods +2.9%, energy -11.5% - flash estimate https://t.co/gJq16Hfd4z pic.twitter.com/cb9fuBLgWj

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) November 30, 2023

The statistical office of the European Union said food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (6.9%, compared with 7.4% in October), followed by services (4.0%, compared with 4.6% in October), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 3.5% in October) and energy (-11.5%, compared with -11.2% in October).

The figures pushed the euro down further against the dollar while equity markets across Europe are higher.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.5%, the Dax in Frankfurt is up 0.2% and the Cac 40 in Paris is up 0.1%.

10:05am: Dr Martens hit all-time low after latest warning

Dr Martens has lost a quarter of its value today, with shares off 25.5%, hitting an all-time low, and way below the 370p IPO price in 2021

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould explained the problems continue to be centred on the US, in particular wholesalers are reluctant to stock large volumes of its boots and shoes.

“That suggests a lack of confidence in US consumer spending power and a headwind the bootmaker could do without,” he said.

He suggested the US consumer spending boom fuelled by stimulus cheques and high levels of savings amassed during the pandemic looks to “be on its last legs” with that cash now spent.

“When times are good, Dr Martens has shown it is possible to make decent returns from its iconic products. But when the economic outlook is more uncertain, the company suffers from having its products priced slightly above the level at which someone wouldn’t think too hard about paying,” Mould commented.

However, he reckons while the market backdrop is not currently in its favour, “when the winds change it should be in a stronger position to capitalise on the growth opportunity.”

9:48am: FTSE perks up, miners weak after Chinese data

London's blue-chips have perked up now after the drop in inflation in France boosted hopes that the ECB might cut interest rates sooner than thouight.

Miners are a weak feature in the FTSE 100 with falls for Antofagasta and Anglo American in the wake of disappointing factory activity figures in China.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown said concerns about China’s struggling economy “are bubbling in the background and now the heat’s been turned up again given data showing factory activity shrank again in November, at the fastest pace for months.”

She explained weak demand at home and abroad has sparked this contraction, according to closely watched PMI data, despite hopes that the situation would improve slightly.

The Chinese economy is facing a multitude of problems, from an imploding property sector with contagion leaking into financial firms, to its exposure to global markets where growth is slowing, she pointed out, adding “easy fixes will be hard to find.”

9:35am: French economy contracts, inflation eases

Over in Europe, and news that the French economy shrank slightly in the third quarter, according to official data, although inflation eased in November.

Gross domestic product in the eurozone’s second-largest economy retreated by 0.1% in the three months to September, statistics authority INSEE said, returning close to flatline following a strong second-quarter expansion.

Euro slips as French economy contracts in Q3 as inflation eases further as wellhttps://t.co/RDdmCBPFrA

— ForexLive (@ForexLive) November 30, 2023

Meanwhile inflation slowed to 3.8% in November, its lowest level for almost two years, as price pressures continued to ease faster than forecast across the eurozone.

Slowing energy and food prices were the main factors pushing down French inflation from 4.5% in October, according to data.

The figures have seen the euro drop against the dollar as markets begin to anticipate the ECB will cut interest rates sooner than thought.

Eurozone inflation figures are due to be released at 10:00 GMT.

9:15am: FTSE reshuffle confirmed, Halfords misses out

The latest quarterly reshuffle has been confirmed with the only surprise, Halfords missing out on a move back to the FTSE 250 after its untimely profit warning yesterday.

Private-equity fund manager Intermediate Capital will join the blue-chip index, while Hargreaves Lansdown drops down to the FTSE 250.

Also joining the midcap index will be electronics retailer AO World, investment trust Asia Dragon, gold and silver miner Hochschild, PPHE Hotel Group, consumer reviews platform Trustpilot and oil and gas explorer Tullow.

Leaving the FTSE 250 will be William Hill-owner 888, electrolyser firm Ceres Power, landlord CLS Holdings, fibre infrastructure investor Digital 9 and fund manager Liontrust.

8:55am: FTSE 100 slips back ahead of inflation data

The FTSE 100 has slipped back with investors looking ahead to inflation readings in Europe and US later in the session.

Richard Hunter at interactive investor noted there were some signs of a “tentative return to risk-on trading” with some strength in the mining stocks, while the oil majors also ground higher on an oil price which has stabilised ahead of the imminent OPEC meeting.

BP led the risers ahead of the Opec meeting while NatWest advanced on the back of an upgrade by JPMorgan to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’.

B&M benefited from an upgrade by Peel Hunt to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ but Severn Trent topped the fallers as it went ex-dividend.

In the FTSE 250, big falls in Dr Martens and Mitchells & Butlers dominate with shares down 23% and 5.5% respectively.

8:35am: Mitchells & Butlers slides after profit declines

Mitchells & Butlers shares have gone into reverse, down 8.3% now.

Alongside the rise in sales, the pub operator reported a fall in profitability.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown said it’s been “challenging” to get the bottom line moving in the right direction.

Sales growth wasn’t quite strong enough to offset cost headwinds of £175 million faced in the period.

Despite easing cost pressures, Nathan said getting back to profit growth isn’t assured.

Sales growth so far this year has slowed a couple of percentage points as landlords head into the crucial festive season, he noted, while there are signs that consumers are cutting back on eating out in order to save for Christmas.

He also pointed out that with a debt pile of over £1 billion it’s no surprise the purse strings haven’t been loosened to allow a dividend.

8:15am: Steady start in London but City puts the boot into Dr Martens

The FTSE 100 made a cautious start to the day but it was a familiar feeling for investors in Dr Martens as the City put the boot into the share price after another profit warning.

At 8:15am, London’s blue-chip index was down 5.71 points, 0.1%, at 7,417.75 while the FTSE 250 fell 76.12 points, 0.4%, at 18,391.46.

Shares in Dr Martens plunged 20% after it warned earnings would be below market expectations and that the recovery in the US would take longer than expected.

Broker Peel Hunt said it was a “larger profit warning than expected, led by weaker US performance, and a bigger hangover through Wholesale in particular.”

It expects to cut financial 2024 pre-tax profit forecasts from £128.7 million to £110 million.

It was better news at Mitchells & Butler, with shares up 1.2%, after results showed rising sales and easing cost pressures, although profits fell back.

Analysts at Shore Capital said profitability was “nicely ahead of forecast,” with continued “robust trading, cost pressures easing and ongoing deleveraging.”

It sees “upside risk” to full-year 2024 estimates.

Elsewhere, shares in Metro Bank rose 3.6% after it increased cost saving targets to £50 million from £30 million amid plans to axe 20% of its work force.

7:55am: Mitchells & Butler sales rise, profit fall, cost pressures ease

Mitchells & Butlers PLC (LSE:MAB) reported a rise in full-year revenue but profits fell in the face of “unprecedented cost headwinds.”

The pub operator said total revenue in the year to September 30 rose to £2.50 billion from £2.21 billion the year before while operating profit fell to £98 million from £124 million hit by property portfolio valuation movements and the inclusion last year of a £52 million government grant.

At the pre-tax level, the firm dipped into the red with a loss of £13 million compared to a profit of £8 million before.

Like-for-like sales grew 9.1% against the year before with record outperformance against the market while cost headwinds started to abate.

“A reduction in energy prices and slowing food inflation, in particular, mean that anticipated overall cost headwinds for the year ahead are expected to reduce to c.£65 million,” the company said.

“This should allow us to start to rebuild margins back towards pre-pandemic levels,” it added.

The company said since the period end, trading has been encouraging with like-for-like sales growth of 7.2%.

Sales growth continues to be broad-based across the brand portfolio and underpinned by stable volumes.

Chief Executive Phil Urban said: “Whilst we remain mindful of the pressures that the UK consumer is facing, the strength of our sales growth alongside an abating cost environment gives us confidence for the financial year ahead.”

No dividend was paid.

7:35am: Dr Martens lowers outlook on challenging US trading

It could be another tough day for investors in Dr Martens PLC (LSE:DOCS).

The iconic bootmaker warned that full-year earnings would be below expectations as it predicted the recovery in the US would take longer-than-expected

The company expects that full year revenue will decline by high single-digit percentage year-on-year and that Ebitda will be “moderately below” the bottom end of consensus expectations, with pre-tax profit also impacted by c.£5 million higher net finance costs.

Given the macro-economic uncertainty, the firm also withdrew previous guidance of high single-digit revenue growth in 2025.

Trading in the second half to date has been mixed, with the start of the Autumn/Winter season impacted by warm weather across all three regions and weaker traffic overall, the firm said.

It described the most challenging part within its US business as wholesale, with widespread macro-economic caution amongst wholesale customers resulting in a weaker order book than in prior years.

Chief Executive Kenny Wilson said that it is likely given the challenging backdrop it will take longer to see an improvement in US results than initially anticipated.

The warning came as the firm unveiled a 5% drop in revenue in the six months ended September to £395.8 million down from £418.6 million the year before while pre-tax profit more than halved to £25.8 million from £57.9 million. The dividend was left unchanged at 1.56p.

The company said wholesale revenue was impacted by planned strategic decisions to reduce volumes into EMEA retailers and exit of the China distributor, together with a weaker US wholesale performance than previously anticipated.

Dr Martens put the consensus for 2024 Ebitda between £223.7 million to £240.0 million and pre-tax profit range £128.7 million to £148.0 million.

7:00am: Bright start expected ahead of inflation updates

The FTSE 100 is expected to open higher on Thursday ahead of inflation data in Europe and the US.

Spread betting companies are calling London’s lead index up around 11 points after closing down 31.78 points, 0.4%, at 7,423.46 on Wednesday.

European inflation figures are up first, and come in the wake of falls in Spanish and German inflation on Wednesday.

"Today we get the latest flash November CPI numbers for France, Italy, and the euro area which if they follow the trend from Spain and Germany yesterday, will put the threat of any prospect of further rate hikes from the ECB even less credible than they are already," CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said.

"Last but by no means least EU flash CPI is forecast to slow to 2.7% from 2.9%, however given the size of the downside surprises seen in the Germany and Spain numbers we could well see an even weaker reading of 2.5%. Core CPI is expected to slow to 3.9% from 4.2%."

This will be followed by US core personal consumption expenditures index data - the Fed's preferred inflationary gauge.

Back in London, and the early focus will be updates from Dr Martens and Mitchells & Butlers.

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