Black Friday eCommerce sales are tracking in line to modestly above expectations, analysts at Wedbush have highlighted on Cyber Monday, the first Monday after U.S. Thanksgiving which typically sees significant online sales.
They pointed to data from several companies which they wrote was encouraging for the fourth quarter.
“Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ:ADBE) estimates U.S. eCommerce sales increased 5.5% year-over-year on Thanksgiving Day and 7.5% year-over-year on Black Friday, ahead of Adobe’s 5.4% year-over-year growth estimate for Cyber Week and 4.8% year-over-year estimate for the entire holiday season,” they wrote.
“Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA) Spending Pulse recorded Black Friday eCommerce sales of 8.5% year-over-year, also ahead of its 6.7% year-over-year estimate for the holiday season. Globally, Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE:CRM) estimates Black Friday sales increased 8% year-over-year.”
Additionally, they noted that both Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) and Mercadolibre, both rated ‘Outperform’ by the analysts, provided Black Friday results that were tracking above their estimates.
“Shopify reported gross merchandise value growth of 22% year-over-year on Black Friday, above our estimate for 4Q gross merchandise value growth of 16.5% year-over-year,” they wrote.
“Mercadolibre saw gross merchandise value growth of 80% year-over-year on Black Friday, and month-to-date gross merchandise value is up 39% year-over-year, pacing significantly higher than our estimate for 4Q (28.5% year-over-year).”
Notably strong holiday season expected for Amazon
The analysts wrote that while Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) was yet to provide an update, they believe the company is positioned for a notably strong holiday season following the ramp-up in fulfilment capacity in the last few years and more recent shift to a regional fulfilment network that is delivering more than half of Prime order in the top 60 U.S. metros on the same day or next day.
They added that the timing of Christmas this year should benefit Amazon as the final day of the shopping season, Christmas Eve, falls on a Sunday which would prevent last-minute deliveries through most third parties.
“Amazon Logistics handles more than two-thirds of orders globally, and we expect a large portion of Amazon customers in the U.S. will still be eligible for delivery on December 24th,” the analyst wrote.
They forecast Amazon’s 4Q sales to grow 6.5% year-over-year and gross merchandise growth of 10.6% year-over-year.
“Overall, we are encouraged by the pace of eCommerce growth thus far and will continue to monitor relevant results and commentary as the season progresses,” the analysts concluded.
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