Ahead of Compass Group PLC's (LSE:CPG) final results, analysts have been salivating about the catering giant's ability to continue serving up tasty returns for years to come, but some investors seem to have lost their appetite.
Having been one of the worst hit in the FTSE 100 during the pandemic, its shares hit an all-time high on the back of May's bullish half-year numbers, which confirmed its comeback from the Covid-afflicted depths and was garnished with a long-term outlook that management expects to sustain organic sales growth (OSG) mid-to-high single digits, resulting in flavoursome shareholder returns.
In the run-up to the results, Deutsche Bank issued an upgrade where it said the FTSE 100 group is the reference business model in the contract catering sector and believes in its capability to deliver "solid, accretive growth".
Barclays also likes Compass, but noted that following July's third-quarter release, "we think investors have been somewhat nervous around the margin outlook into 2024".
However, the bank's analysts said they are comfortable with consensus forecasts for the next financial year, to September 2024, "with potential for some upside risk to emerge through the year coming from higher OSG", adding that the City and investors no longer expect profit margin upside on top.
The share price, down over 7% from the highs, is "rather attractive" into the final results, and the analysts said they believe that "a reassuring update from management + confident tone + likely re-load of the share buyback programme (our best guess is another £750m) can be ‘enough’ to see the stock gently ‘work’/re-rate slightly over that period".
For the past year to September, the consensus forecast is for sales to swell to £31.4 billion from £25.8 billion, with organic growth of around 19%.
Underlying profits (EBIT) are seen climbing to £2.124 billion from £1.59 billion and net tax income to £1.51 billion from £1.12 billion.
Analysts at UBS said they also expect "further capital returns will be on the agenda", along with an update on 2024.