Half-year results from Vodafone Group PLC (LSE:VOD) could provide some reassurance on some key issues, according to some analysts.
"We see scope for Q2 to reassure on Germany and scope for further M&A newsflow," UBS said noted ahead of interims on Tuesday 14 November, against a background where Emirates based Etisalat could increase its stake further above 14.6% and the FTSE 100 group also said to be considering options in Italy after agreeing to sell its Spanish business for €5 billion at the end of last month.
But other analysts, at Citigroup, for example, reckon issues outside the company may "overshadow" the results.
Back in July, Vodafone's first quarter impressed as it reported an acceleration of service revenue growth, driven by a strong performance in the UK and improved showings in Germany, Italy and Spain.
For the second quarter, the City analyst consensus is for European service revenue growth of 0.4% the same as the first.
For Germany specifically, UBS noted that the consensus forecast is for a 0.8% decline in service revenue, which would be an improvement on the 1.3% fall in the first quarter and 2.8% at the end of the previous year.
Earnings (EBITDA) are seen declining 3.5% for the first half, up from the 7.4% drop in the first half and 4.7% in the second of the prior year.
For the full year, new(ish) boss Margherita Della Valle, who was appointed in April, guided to EBITDA of circa €13.3bn on a constant currency basis and free cash flow of around €3.3 billion.
"While data points are likely to be positive near-term, there could be challenges for Germany in 2024," said UBS.
The analysts predict that EBITDA and free cash are both likely to be weighted to the second half as the bulk of the energy cost headwind passes.
"On Germany, broadband price rises appear to be landing better than expected and network/customer service issues appear to be resolved. However, changes to German basic cable TV regulation will start to impact from January 2024."
They added: "We think concerns about operating trends have outweighed M&A optionality. However, should Q2 results reassure and with the recent Spanish divestment (link) and UK M&A (link) we think investors may start to focus on the potential M&A upside."