It’s all about inflation next week with readings on both sides of the Atlantic which will provide central banks with more ammunition as they plot their next move on interest rates.
The chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will be hoping for less “head fakes” from next week’s numbers after saying he was prepared if needed, to hike interest rates further in order to bring inflation down to its long-term two percent target.
Could core US inflation tick up?
Starting with the US on Tuesday, and economists think the annual headline inflation rate will edge lower in October although core inflation may nudge higher.
Bank of America forecasts a rise in headline CPI of 0.2% month-on-month, a “meaningful deceleration” from the 0.4% print in September, which, if correct would see the annual rate fall three-tenths to 3.4%.
“While we expect headline inflation to moderate in October, we look for core inflation to print at 0.3% m/m for a second consecutive month,” BofA said.
This would result in the annual rate ticking up a tenth to 4.2%, it said, which would be the first increase since March.“It would also be a reminder that disinflation is not always a smooth ride,” the investment bank said.
Falling energy prices to pull UK inflation lower
Back to the UK, where inflation figures are due on Wednesday and hopes high for a significant drop in the headline figure.
Data in the past week showed food price inflation in single digits for the first time in 16 months but it is falling energy prices which are likely to be the main driver behind a decrease.
Goldman Sachs economists expect the print to show both services and core inflation declining by two-tenths to 6.7% year-on-year, below the Bank of England’s projection of 6.9%, and 5.9% respectively.
“Taken together with the fall in the Ofgem's price cap for average household energy bills in Q4, we expect headline inflation to decline meaningfully to 4.7% (from 6.7% in September), a tenth below the BoE's projection of 4.8% year-on-year,” the Goldman team said.
They predicts food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation will decline to 10.6%, from 11.8% in September and energy inflation will decrease to -16.7%, from -0.2% in September, largely due to a fall in the Ofgem's price cap for average household energy bills in the fourth quarter.
UK jobs market to stay subdued
Going back to Tuesday, the UK will also catch up on the September labour report which is expected to show the unemployment rate remaining flat at 4.2% and three-month year-over-year private sector regular pay growth moderating to 7.7% (from 8.0% in August), below the BoE's projection of 7.9%.
This week, a report from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG showed a jump in people looking for work and continued weakness in permanent hiring as the interest rate squeeze starts to bite.
For its labour market data ONS is publishing a set of "experimental adjusted headline estimates" for the period from July to September, along with average weekly earnings, vacancies and other labour market related statistics for the UK. In October the ONS was forced to delay publication of its labour market stats amid efforts to "transform" its labour force survey as the number of people responding has fallen dramatically and prompted questions about the quality of the data.
In Europe, there will be a second estimate of third quarter GDP on Tuesday, followed by September industrial production data on Wednesday and the final reading for October inflation on Friday.
Finally, the European Commission will publish its Autumn Forecasts and its expectations for its 2024 fiscal stance on Wednesday.
Macro week ahead
Monday's economic announcements: Budget Statement (US), New Loans (China)
Tuesday's economic announcements: Unemployment (UK), Consumer Price Index (US), Employment (EU), GDP (EU), ZEW Economic Sentiment (EU), Consumer & Business Sentiment (AUS)
Wednesday's economic announcements: Inflation (UK), House Price Index (UK), MBA Mortgage Applications (US), Producer Price Index(US), Retail Sales (US), Retail Sales Less Autos (US), Business Inventories (US), Crude Oil Inventories (US), Industrial Production (EU), Balance of Trade (EU), Industrial Production (China), Retail Sales (China), Unemployment (China)
Thursday's economic announcements: Business Insights and Conditions (UK), Initial Jobless Claims (US), Continuing Claims (US), Import and Export Price Indices (US), Philadelphia Fed Index (US), Industrial Production (US), Capacity Utilisation (US), Unemployment (Aus), House Prices (China), Housing Starts (Can)
Friday's economic announcements: Retail Sales (UK), Cost of Living Survey (UK), Building Permits (US), Housing Starts (US), Inflation (EU), FDI (China)