On the back of its half-year results in July, Informa PLC (LSE:INF) shares briefly regained the level they last saw before the first pandemic lockdown, topping 780p, but have dropped back around 8% since as economic and corporate news has been some way less than perfect.
A 10-month trading update is expected from the FTSE 100-listed events and exhibitions group on Tuesday 14 November, where the market will see if it is still on track to hit the "top end" of guidance as it said in the summer.
Back then, it had acknowledged the combination of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, heightened inflation and rising interest rates in many regions, but said its status as "leading and largest" in the sector internationally gave it the geographic breadth and market depth to enable consistent growth amid the broader volatility and uncertainty.
That was before the recent war in Gaza and some other macroeconomic wobbles elsewhere.
The full-year guidance range is for revenue of £2.95-3.05 billion and group adjusted operating profit of £750-790 million, assuming a GBP/USD exchange rate of 1.25, though the pound has weakened to 1.22 since.
Ahead of the trading update, analysts at Citigroup said they expect growth trends to "remain fairly robust" and for the group to "at least reiterate" its guidance if not raise it because of the FX swing.
Reflecting the softening of the pound, Citi mildly upgrade its forecast for the current year and into the medium-term and increased its share price target to 915p from 900p.
"The big picture for us is that, within the professional information/B2B services complex, the two most interesting areas are academic publishing (where we see scope for a multi-year rerating as revenue accelerates) and B2B events where we see a 'stronger for longer' revenue recovery," the analysts added.
"Informa has greater exposure to these areas than peers, a more flexible balance sheet (and therefore optionality on cash usage) and cheaper valuation."