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Rise in UK unemployment should mean interest rates stay unchanged

The rate of UK unemployment rose 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% in the three months to the end of August, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Over the same period the number of people in work fell by 0.3 percentage points to 75.7%, the ONS said – the equivalent of 82,000 jobs.

That follows a 113,000 drop in the previous quarter.

These estimates should be treated as “experimental”, the ONS said, as they were for the first time derived from tax records and benefits claims, rather than the labour force survey on which its figures are usually based.

The statistics agency was unable to publish the usual figures because of worsening problems with its survey.

Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures "continue to suggest that labour market slack is developing more quickly that the MPC expected in August’s Monetary Policy Report, adding to the evidence the committee will keep bank rate at 5.25% at next month’s meeting".

She thinks unemployment will peak at 4.8% in the first quarter of 2024, which should continue to push down on wage growth.

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