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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK

Financial Services

Macro week ahead: ECB meeting on Thursday, US inflation and UK jobs in focus

The meetings for both the Fed and BoE are coming the week after

The European Central Bank decision on Thursday is the big item on the coming week's macroeconomic menu, but there will also be plenty of dashes of economic data around the world to spice things up for the stock and currency markets.

In fact, UBS forex strategists reckon the week "could be make or break for the euro", following its recent slump.

The Swiss bank's chief investment office does not think the currency will slip even further, but said that "requires a clear message from the European Central Bank (ECB) that fighting inflation remains the top priority and stabilization of inflation expectations is more important than growth concerns".

They added that they "do not see any sign of financial stress that would prevent the ECB from tightening policy further".

US inflation

Before that meeting, the US consumer price inflation release on Wednesday will be next week's key event, said analysts at Deutsche Bank, noting that it is the last print ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting the week after.

"The report will follow previous releases that showed welcome progress on the inflation front as well as jobs data that reflected some easing in the labour market."

In line with the wider consensus, Deutsche's US economists expect higher commodity prices in recent weeks to translate into a 0.6% month-on-month gain for headline CPI, up from +0.2% in July, while core CPI is forecast to continue advancing at a 0.2% pace.

Other US price pressure indicators will also be available during the week, including factory gate prices on Thursday, with a consensus forecast for an 0.4% month-on-month print, up from 0.3% in July, then a consumer expectations survey from the University of Michigan on Friday.

UK focus on jobs ahead of BoE later in month

For the UK, ahead of the Bank of England meeting the week after, there is a fair amount of weighty data, starting with the jobs survey on Tuesday, where average weekly earnings will be particularly in focus, said UBS.

"The UK is still dealing with a tight labor market and structural challenges from Brexit, while the aggressive monetary policy tightening is working its way through the economy."

Craig Erlam, market analyst at Oanda, said there is a big focus on whether the jobs market is weakening, with inflation falling fast but not yet under control.

"If the BoE is to be believed, it is expected to fall markedly over the remainder of the year.

"If the MPC is going to be confident of inflation returning sustainably to 2%, the labour market will likely be key to it so there'll likely be a much greater focus on it going forward."

As other recent jobs data has been promising from a BoE perspective, he said this should "contribute to some lively debate in a couple of weeks".

GDP and industrial and manufacturing output prints on Wednesday and a RICS housing survey on Thursday are also due, with the Bank of England's inflation attitudes survey on Friday wrapping up the week.

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