Redrow’s trading update comes at a time when one by one its housebuilding peers are warning about slowing demand, mortgage availability and uncertain outlook.
UBS says the focus in next year’s finals will be on the early outlook for the current trading year to end June 2024 as several rivals have recently reported on current trading and price/cost dynamics.
“For FY24, we forecast private volumes of 3,100 (-19% y/y and -30% vs FY22) based on: a private sales rate of 0.50 per site per week, 120 outlets (flat y/y) and a closing FY23E private order book of 1,300 units (-44% y/y).
Margins are forecast at 10.5%, which is broadly in line with peers but this remains the biggest forecasting uncertainty in the current year says UBS, which expects a profit before tax in 203/24 of £169m.